Packers debacle - personnel review

Well, as I anticipated, going back and watching that game for the second time was almost as painful as the first.  What a load of crap.  Before anything else, here's the personnel chart from the game:

A couple things to note regarding the chart:

• There were a total of 22 run plays and 36 pass plays.  Much of that was due to the fact that we were behind as we had 21 runs and 22 passes through 3 quarters.
• The disparity between runs and passes out of 11 personnel continues.  It's even worse when you consider that 2 of the 9 runs out of that grouping were draw plays on 3 and 19+.  I also noticed (I don't have an exact count) that many of the plays we ran out of 11 personnel were out of the shotgun formation.  All of this adds up to a near complete lack of unpredictability for an opposing defense to worry about.

Here are the rest of my notes from the game:

The lack of desire to establish a running game early was incredibly disturbing.  This offensive line in completely incapable of protecting Jay if the opposing D-Linemen are allowed to pin their ears back and attack.  How the Bears coaching staff was unaware of this (especially after 2 years of Martz) is amazing.

Evan Rodriguez needs to play more.  Kellen Davis needs to play less.  Matt Spaeth needs to play even less than that.  He is brutal.

Cutler needs to get rid of the ball.  It's tough enough that the line can't protect, but when they DO give time, he needs to find someone or get rid of the ball.  Eliminate these negative plays.

We'll be back in the next couple days after going over the "All 22" film with more analysis.  As always, please feel free to comment below.

Bears - Colts Personnel Review

Here's my review of the Colts game from a personnel standpoint.  First, though, to new readers of Bears Playbook and anyone unfamiliar with the terminology, let's go over a quick description of the different personnel packages.

Personnel packages are identified with a two-digit number.  Obviously, there are 11 players on offense.  One is the QB and 5 are the offensive linemen.  This leaves 5 skill players on the offensive side of the ball.  This group is composed of RB's, WR's and TE's.  In naming the personnel group on the field, we list the number of RB's followed by the number of TE's.  Adding these numbers together and then subtracting from 5 tells us the number of WR's on the field as well.  It sounds like a lot, but it's very easy in practice.  For example, if there is 1 RB in the game and 2 TE's, that is called 12 personnel (1 for the # of RB's, then 2 for the # of TE's).  Since there are 5 skill players on the field, this leaves 2 WR's on the field in this situation.  Got it?  What if there was 1 RB, 1 TE and 3 WR?  That's 11 personnel.  1 RB and 0 TE?  That's 10 personnel.  Lastly, a 5 WR set is called 00 personnel (0 WR, 0 TE).

Every NFL team tracks the personnel that the offense sends on the field.  They also track tendencies that a team may show about how often they will run or pass out of each personnel group.  In preparing for an upcoming game, they will track the other team's last 4 games personnel tendencies.  So, finally, here is the chart for this week's game.

The totals for the game were 40 passes and 29 runs.  This doesn't seem like too bad a balance.  Look, however, at what the Bears did out of 11 personnel.  With this personnel group on the field, the Bears passed 20 times and ran only 5.  This is a whopping disparity.  So, when the Packers see the Bears trot out this personnel group onto the field this week, you can bet they'll be anticipating pass plays.  I am very curious to see if Mike Tice tries to use this to his advantage by running more often out of this personnel.  This fact also helps explain some things that I saw during the game.

For example, at 6:15 in the 2^nd quarter, Bears faced a 3^rd an 11 at the Indy 24.  They ran a draw play to Michael Bush.  I hated the play call at the time but now, after charting the personnel packages, I like it.  At that point in time, the Bears had run 11 plays out of 11 personnel and EVERY ONE was a pass play.  On 3^rd and 11, Indy would be expecting a pass of course.  In addition, the Bears had shown that they love throwing the ball out of 11 personnel.  So, although it didn’t work in the end, that play had a great chance to catch Indy off guard and succeed (it almost did.  We gained 8 yards on the play despite poor execution by Bush who ran straight into Garza).  

So, while you watch the game this Thursday, pay attention to what the Bears do when you see 1 RB and 3 WR's on the field.  This may provide significant insight into Tice's ability to maintain (or exploit) balance in his playcalling.

Bears Off to Fast Start

What an opening to the 2012 season!  It definitely looked a little dicey at first, but when we got settled in (an effort clearly expedited by the injury to Dwight Freeney) we looked downright dangerous.  It had a little bit of everything we have been waiting (and hoping) for.  Here are some of my quick feelings after the game:

There was great running by Matt Forte.  When we came out throwing and the O-line couldn't protect, we started handing the ball to 22.  The result?  We marched down the field, scored a touchdown and that seemed to settle the whole team down.

Speaking of that touchdown, we converted in the red zone.  We scored touchdowns where we used to kick field goals.  Michael Bush is a great acquisition.  Never mind the towering receivers.  That TD to Marshall was just too easy.

Brandon Marshall.  Beast.  In case anyone wasn't yet aware, Cutler LOVES throwing to this guy.  Doesn't matter whether or not he's covered.  That will get us in trouble at some point, but I believe it will work in our favor more often than not.  This guy is ridiculous.

The rookies.  Alshon Jeffery continues to impress.  On that TD pass, Cutler audibled to have Marshall occupy the safety to free up Jeffery on the post (don't even get me started on how great it is that Cutler can audible!!).  Evan Rodriguez had some nice blocks and continues to develop and Shea McClellin had some nice pressure.  I very much like that they aren't shy about moving McClellin to RDE at times (this used to be Peppers' call, he has the right to line up wherever on the line he wants... not sure if this is still the case).  I continue to like this rookie class more and more as time goes by.

As for the defense, I felt it was a good job overall.  I was fairly pleased with the amount of pressure we got from the D-Line (I stated during the preseason that I felt that Henry Melton would soon be talked about as one of Chicago's elite defenders.  This game made that look like a real possibility).  Awesome game by Tim Jennings.  Good game by Chris Conte.  Urlacher was pretty ineffective (to be expected) and I was happy to see him pulled early.

All in all, it was a great start to the 2012 season.  We're on a short week this week with the matchup in Green Bay looming, but I will have a breakdown of our personnel usage and playcalling in the next few days.

Random Thoughts/Quick Hits

I've been away for a bit, so I thought I'd post some random thoughts before tonight's game at New York.  First, let me copy and paste some notes I had taken while watching the last preseason game against the Redskins:

This Cutler to Marshall could be a serious hook-up for us for 10 years.
WOW Jay has a cannon.
That first drive was unlike any I can recall from recent memory.
I have NOT been impressed with Gabe Carimi.
Henry Melton could soon be thought of as one of Chicago's great defensive players.
Chris Spencer sucks.
I still sometimes root for the Bears to give Forte chances near the goal line.  Michael Bush might be changing that.
I'm not happy with our special teams coverage units.
I love McClellin's motor, but he REALLY needs to get stronger.
This looks like a top 5 offense in the NFL.
Alshon Jeffery looks better and better and better.  REALLY impressed.
Did I just see Lovie Smith smiling?
I repeat, I'm not happy with our special teams coverage units.
I hope Podlesh is ok.  I like him.
Scary injury to Brandon Hardin.  Thank God he's ok.
I wish we'd see more of Evan Rodriguez with the 1's, but he just showed why we don't.
Good job by our LT's today.
Most years we'd be SCREAMING to make Chris Summers our starting split end.  Now he's a practice squad guy.  What a difference a year makes.
As I typed that, Summers dropped what should've been a TD.
Jay Cutler was just asked who called the pass to Marshall on the first play, him or Tice.  Jay smiled and said "well, Mike (Tice) gives us some flexibility.  When we get single coverage out there, we're going to attack it."  LOVE that!!
Evan Rodriguez again flashing his potential.  I hope we see continued development from him.
Robbie Gould is great.

Some of this is what I'll be looking for tonight.  I'll be looking for more good play from our LT's (isn't that the first thing we all think of before each preseason game?).  I'm also hoping to see better play from our special teams.  We can't be giving up that kind of field position constantly (while I'm sure that Robbie has intentionally not kicked some balls through the end zone during the preseason, that's not the point).  I continue to enjoy watching the rookies McClellin, Jeffery and Rodriguez and hope to continue to see development from them.

Being the third preseason game, I will also be tracking our personnel groupings and what plays we run out of each one.  I'll be doing that all year and reporting on it right here every week, but I'll do that tonight also since the Bears will have gameplanned (to some extent) for this game.  I'm very interested to see how well Tice can maintain a healthy run/pass split out of each personnel grouping.  Ironically, our O-line issues might help in that regard.  Because of the need to help our line protect, we'll often have two tight-ends in the game (12 and 22 personnel).  That type of personnel on the field would usually key the defense to a running play, but we will be passing out of that grouping almost more out of necessity than design.  This will help keep a defense guessing and should help Tice as he gets accustomed to his new role of offensive playcaller.

Urlacher Undergoes Knee Scope

Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher underwent an arthroscopic procedure on his left knee on Tuesday.  Head Coach Lovie Smith described the procedure as a “minor scope” and said “there shouldn’t be any reason to really be concerned.”  Of course, this sounds like what Lovie has been saying all along.  That was before 54 started missing practices.  That was before this procedure.  That was before Urlacher’s status for the beginning of the regular season was in jeopardy.

I’m not saying that Lach won’t be ready for the regular season.  He very well may be.  Teammate Nick Roach had a similar procedure done before the regular season in 2010 and played in the opener 2 ½ weeks later.  What I am saying is that I don’t believe anything that Lovie or Emery tell us.  Take it all with a grain of salt.

Back to Urlacher, though, I guess the best we can do now is just hope for a smooth recovery.  Urlacher himself has said that he doubts he’ll be without pain in the knee for the entire season.  It is entirely possible that he’ll practice very little and then play on Sundays.  If anybody can do that effectively, it’s probably him.  What this all means for his contract status is a discussion for another day.  For now, let’s just hope that this doesn’t derail what could be a very special season.

Bears O-Line, They Are Who We Thought They Were

That was my first thought after watching the Bears first preseason game.  I’m not one to overreact to preseason games, especially the first one when four of our best players didn’t even sniff the field, but our offensive line continues to unimpress.  J’Marcus Webb played well into the fourth quarter and had a false start and gave up a sack.  Chris Spencer gave up a sack in limited action.  UDFA James Brown, a player I’m admittedly a fan of, played very poorly at LT in the end of the 4^th quarter giving up one sack and being at least partially to blame for another one.  RT Gabe Carimi surprisingly failed to generate any push in the running game while he was in.  In general, the interior of the line allowed pressure up the middle repeatedly.  All in all, it was one preseason game.  The fact remains though, that they’ve thus far given me no reason to believe they’ll be anything but bad this season.  Until they do, I’ll be working with that assumption.

Other notes from the first game:

Shea McClellin looked ok.  He flashed his speed and relentlessness in getting his first sack as a pro.  He did, however, get run over on the Broncos first touchdown and he clearly needs to play with better pad level in the running game.  He also needs to develop counter moves to beat O-linemen, but that will expectedly take some time and be a work in progress.  Summary:  he has good speed, a high motor and struggles in the running game.  He too is what we thought he was, at least for now.

Alshon Jeffery played pretty well.  He used his size well and displayed good hands.  He needs to continue to use his hands better to beat press coverage, but he looks like he could be a contributor sooner rather than later.

Major Wright made an interception on a tipped pass, but was later removed due to a hamstring issue.  His durability continues to be a concern.

I was hoping to see more of Evan Rodriguez, but most of his usefulness during the season will be through personnel mismatches.  The Bears will achieve this by moving him around from as in-line tight end to the slot to H-back, etc.  Since the Bears won’t gameplan until the third preseason game (and even then in a limited capacity), I don’t expect to know exactly how (or how much) we’ll utilize him until the season starts.

In the end, it was just the first preseason game.  It was quite ugly, but that is to be expected when Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Brian Urlacher and Julius Peppers all sit out.  The most important outcome was that nobody was injured and the Bears should’ve gotten some good film to look at and work off of as they prepare for next week’s game in Washington.

FINALLY!!! Bears open preseason tonight.

The preseason is finally upon us as the Bears will take on the Denver Broncos tonight at Soldier Field.  In a game filled with side stories, Bears fans will get their first look at the Jay Cutler to Brandon Marshall connection since they were teammates with these very same Broncos in 2008.  While this is the biggest story for Bears fans, the biggest story for most NFL fans will be their first look at Payton Manning with the Broncos.  When it’s all said and done, however, the fact remains that this is still week 1 of the preseason and the starters on both teams will be expected to play less than one quarter of action.  What else should Bears fans watch for?

Other than watching Brandon Marshall in a Bears uniform, I’m most eager to get a look at the performances of the Bears left tackles; J’Marcus Webb and Chris Williams.  While Webb appeared to win the “competition” for the starting job, Offensive Coordinator Mike Tice has acknowledged that Webb hasn’t played great and he is not a lock to start week 1 of the regular season.  If Webb struggles (especially with mental mistakes, which Tice hates), it is entirely possible that Williams will be starting the next preseason game and this could turn into a legitimate competition.

I’m also looking forward to seeing our rookie draft picks in action.  Specifically, I’ll be watching out for Shea McClellin (#99), Alshon Jeffery (#17), Evan Rodriguez (#88) and undrafted free agent O-lineman James Brown (#78).  For McClellin, watch to see if he can effectively use counter moves when engaged with an O-lineman.  Look to see if Jeffery can beat press coverage.  With Rodriguez, I’m most interested in where he lines up and how the Bears utilize him.  While the gameplan will be very vanilla, it will still be interesting to see if he lines up as an H-back, an inline blocker or at the Y in 21 (or 12) personnel.  As for James Brown, I’m also interested in where he lines up the most.  Judging by what I’ve heard from training camp, the coaching staff is taking a pretty good look at him at the LT spot.  I can’t help but wonder if he’s in consideration for the swing tackle spot.

So, it should be a very entertaining game from many angles.  I didn’t even mention Tice’s offense,  Brandon Hardin, Matt Forte or Jason Campbell.  I don’t think I’ve ever been this excited for a Bears season and likewise I’ve never been this excited for a Bears preseason game.  It’s finally here.