Forte Deal, Who Won?

By now, we all know that Matt Forte signed a 4 year contract worth about $31.5 million with $18 million guaranteed.  That amount of guaranteed money is about the same amount that the Bears would’ve spent if they had franchised Forte for two seasons.  So now, the debate shifts from “should Chicago sign Forte?” to “was this a good deal for the Bears?”  Let’s analyze.

In order to determine how good of a deal this is, let’s look at other running backs who have signed recently.

NAME	# OF YEARS	TOTAL CONTRACT VALUE	GUARANTEED MONEY
LeSean McCoy	5	$45M	$20.15M
Arian Foster	5	$43.5M	$20.75M
Ray Rice	5	$40M	$24M
Marshawn Lynch	4	$31M	$17M
Matt Forte	4	$31.5M	$18M

The first thing that jumps out at me is how close Forte’s deal is to the Lynch deal.  This would make me immediately think that this has to be a win for the Bears.  After all, Forte is a much more versatile back than Marshawn Lynch (he’s also not in prison, unlike Lynch).  When comparing to the other backs on this list, we see that they each got 5 year contracts as opposed to Forte’s 4 year deal.  This, in turn, led to more guaranteed money.  Not only that, but they each have a higher yearly average salary than what Matt received.  So this has to be a slam dunk for the Bears.  So why did Forte sign this deal?

To answer that, let’s dig a little deeper into that Lynch deal again.  The numbers appear to be very similar, but in breaking it down we can find differences between his contract and Forte’s.  After two seasons, Lynch will have received $17 million, the entire guaranteed portion of his contract.  At that point, the Seahawks can cut him loose if they so desire without owing him another penny.  Forte, on the other hand, will have received $18 million after two years with another $5.5 million in guaranteed money still on the table.  That extra money is in the contract as a $4 million roster bonus and a $31,000 bonus for each game for which he dresses in 2013.  This money is very likely to be earned (in contract speak, they call these LTE, or likely to earn bonuses).  So while Forte’s contract only guarantees $18 million, it is likely to be at least $22.5 million.  The only realistic way he’s not getting that extra amount would be due to a catastrophic injury.  So let’s say he takes out an insurance policy against such an event.  Then, for all intents and purposes, he can consider this a contract with $22.5 million guaranteed.  The icing on the cake then becomes the fact that it’s only a 4 year deal which allows him to hit free agency a year sooner and possibly get another contract while he’s still productive.  With this in mind, look at the chart again and imagine that that guaranteed number for Forte is $22.5 instead of $18.  Suddenly, it looks like he may have gotten the best deal of the group.

So, I guess the answer to the original question is that everybody wins.  The Bears were able to keep one of their best players without having to dish out a prohibitive amount of guaranteed money.  Forte was able to get a deal which gives him both financial security and the possibility of another lucrative deal down the road.  Phil Emery gets credit for accomplishing something that his predecessor was repeatedly criticized for not being able to accomplish.  Perhaps most importantly, the fans win.  This signing guarantees that Forte will be at training camp on time and there should be no distractions taking away from this team as they prepare for what could be a magical year.  With this signing done, the Bears are at full strength heading into training camp.  And that is fuller strength than any Bears team since the mid 80’s.