FINALLY!!! Bears open preseason tonight.

The preseason is finally upon us as the Bears will take on the Denver Broncos tonight at Soldier Field.  In a game filled with side stories, Bears fans will get their first look at the Jay Cutler to Brandon Marshall connection since they were teammates with these very same Broncos in 2008.  While this is the biggest story for Bears fans, the biggest story for most NFL fans will be their first look at Payton Manning with the Broncos.  When it’s all said and done, however, the fact remains that this is still week 1 of the preseason and the starters on both teams will be expected to play less than one quarter of action.  What else should Bears fans watch for?

Other than watching Brandon Marshall in a Bears uniform, I’m most eager to get a look at the performances of the Bears left tackles; J’Marcus Webb and Chris Williams.  While Webb appeared to win the “competition” for the starting job, Offensive Coordinator Mike Tice has acknowledged that Webb hasn’t played great and he is not a lock to start week 1 of the regular season.  If Webb struggles (especially with mental mistakes, which Tice hates), it is entirely possible that Williams will be starting the next preseason game and this could turn into a legitimate competition.

I’m also looking forward to seeing our rookie draft picks in action.  Specifically, I’ll be watching out for Shea McClellin (#99), Alshon Jeffery (#17), Evan Rodriguez (#88) and undrafted free agent O-lineman James Brown (#78).  For McClellin, watch to see if he can effectively use counter moves when engaged with an O-lineman.  Look to see if Jeffery can beat press coverage.  With Rodriguez, I’m most interested in where he lines up and how the Bears utilize him.  While the gameplan will be very vanilla, it will still be interesting to see if he lines up as an H-back, an inline blocker or at the Y in 21 (or 12) personnel.  As for James Brown, I’m also interested in where he lines up the most.  Judging by what I’ve heard from training camp, the coaching staff is taking a pretty good look at him at the LT spot.  I can’t help but wonder if he’s in consideration for the swing tackle spot.

So, it should be a very entertaining game from many angles.  I didn’t even mention Tice’s offense,  Brandon Hardin, Matt Forte or Jason Campbell.  I don’t think I’ve ever been this excited for a Bears season and likewise I’ve never been this excited for a Bears preseason game.  It’s finally here.

Bears First Padded Practice. 5 Things to Watch.

Finally.  The Bears will hold their first padded practice of the offseason tonight.  Now that the pads are coming on, we can start to get a much better idea of how certain things are coming together.  Here are the top 5 things I’ll be watching tonight:

Get that dummy out of here.  Tonight, Shea McClellin goes up against real competition.

5.  Shea McClellin.  How will the rookie look in pads?  Will he be pushed around in running drills?  More importantly, how will he look in the 1 on 1 pass rush drills?  Will he show a good repertoire of moves/counter moves?  This will be our first real look at Phil Emery’s first draft pick and I’m very anxious to see it.

4.  Gabe Carimi.  On the flip side of McClellin is Gabe Carimi.  How will he look coming off the knee injury that sidelined him for all but 6 quarters of 2011?  His comeback is vital for Chicago’s success this year and now we’ll get to see if he is fully recovered from that injury.

3.  Brian Urlacher.  Speaking of knee injuries, today we’ll get a good idea whether or not Brian Urlacher truly is “110% good to go” as he said.  Though wearing a knee brace, he hasn’t looked restricted at all thus far into camp.  Now we’ll see how he looks full speed and with contact.

2.  Matt Forte.  Full speed in pads is exactly what we want to see here.  Ever since he failed to condition himself properly heading into his second year, Matt Forte has been a workout warrior and has always reported to camp in amazing shape.  This year appears to be no different.  There was some concern though, due to the missed mini-camp, that he might not arrive in “football shape”.  He looked fast on a breakaway run yesterday, but today we’ll see just how fast he looks in pads.

1.  The left tackle battle.  Of course.  The biggest question mark on the team, the battle for the left tackle position between J'Marcus Webb and Chris Williams, will legitimately begin today.  It’s very hard to judge linemen without pads on, so today is the day the battle really starts.  This is where most eyes should be tonight.

So, it should be a lot of fun tonight.  Today is the day that it truly feels like camp begins.  We’re only 12 days away from the first preseason game against the Broncos, so the action should be coming fast and furious now.  That’s also what the action on the field will be like tonight.  Here we go.

Bears Report to Training Camp

Bears players arrive at the dorms of Olivet Nazarene
University for the start of training camp

The Bears have arrived at training camp at Olivet Nazarene University in Bourbonnais, IL.  The players will undergo physicals today and also take part in strength and conditioning drills.  Their first practice will begin tomorrow at 2:30 and that is open to the public.

What To Watch For

Everyone is excited to watch Jay Cutler throw the ball to Brandon Marshall.  It will also be great to see Matt Forte participating with the team for the first time this offseason (he reportedly looks to be in great shape).  However, the most important thing to watch now that the pads are on will be the performance of the offensive linemen, particularly the battle for the left tackle position.  According to Offensive Coordinator Mike Tice, Chris Williams and J’Marcus Webb will split the reps 50/50 with the winner becoming the starter at left tackle and the loser assuming the swing tackle role.

Williams and Webb have both had their struggles at LT and that is the reason this competition ever came about in the first place.  Williams’ struggles presumably can be (at least partially) attributed to injury, he was never fully healthy until the start of last season, while Webb’s troubles are attributed to inexperience.  With limited practices in pads, the most important component of this battle will be their performances in the preseason games.  The trouble with evaluating performances in the preseason, though, is that starters typically don’t play much.  With that in mind, it will be very interesting to see who gets the start in the Bears’ first preseason game on August 9^th against the Broncos and RDE Elvis Dumervil (if he’s not in jail by then).

This is quite possibly the most anticipated Bears season since the mid-late 1980’s.  With training camp finally upon us, we’ll begin to get a good idea of whether or not that excitement is legitimate.  Phil Emery said, “We want to win now.  We want to win championships now.”  That is clearly a sentiment that is shared by all fans.  The journey to accomplish that goal begins now and, may I say, it’s about time.

Forte Deal, Who Won?

By now, we all know that Matt Forte signed a 4 year contract worth about $31.5 million with $18 million guaranteed.  That amount of guaranteed money is about the same amount that the Bears would’ve spent if they had franchised Forte for two seasons.  So now, the debate shifts from “should Chicago sign Forte?” to “was this a good deal for the Bears?”  Let’s analyze.

In order to determine how good of a deal this is, let’s look at other running backs who have signed recently.

NAME	# OF YEARS	TOTAL CONTRACT VALUE	GUARANTEED MONEY
LeSean McCoy	5	$45M	$20.15M
Arian Foster	5	$43.5M	$20.75M
Ray Rice	5	$40M	$24M
Marshawn Lynch	4	$31M	$17M
Matt Forte	4	$31.5M	$18M

The first thing that jumps out at me is how close Forte’s deal is to the Lynch deal.  This would make me immediately think that this has to be a win for the Bears.  After all, Forte is a much more versatile back than Marshawn Lynch (he’s also not in prison, unlike Lynch).  When comparing to the other backs on this list, we see that they each got 5 year contracts as opposed to Forte’s 4 year deal.  This, in turn, led to more guaranteed money.  Not only that, but they each have a higher yearly average salary than what Matt received.  So this has to be a slam dunk for the Bears.  So why did Forte sign this deal?

To answer that, let’s dig a little deeper into that Lynch deal again.  The numbers appear to be very similar, but in breaking it down we can find differences between his contract and Forte’s.  After two seasons, Lynch will have received $17 million, the entire guaranteed portion of his contract.  At that point, the Seahawks can cut him loose if they so desire without owing him another penny.  Forte, on the other hand, will have received $18 million after two years with another $5.5 million in guaranteed money still on the table.  That extra money is in the contract as a $4 million roster bonus and a $31,000 bonus for each game for which he dresses in 2013.  This money is very likely to be earned (in contract speak, they call these LTE, or likely to earn bonuses).  So while Forte’s contract only guarantees $18 million, it is likely to be at least $22.5 million.  The only realistic way he’s not getting that extra amount would be due to a catastrophic injury.  So let’s say he takes out an insurance policy against such an event.  Then, for all intents and purposes, he can consider this a contract with $22.5 million guaranteed.  The icing on the cake then becomes the fact that it’s only a 4 year deal which allows him to hit free agency a year sooner and possibly get another contract while he’s still productive.  With this in mind, look at the chart again and imagine that that guaranteed number for Forte is $22.5 instead of $18.  Suddenly, it looks like he may have gotten the best deal of the group.

So, I guess the answer to the original question is that everybody wins.  The Bears were able to keep one of their best players without having to dish out a prohibitive amount of guaranteed money.  Forte was able to get a deal which gives him both financial security and the possibility of another lucrative deal down the road.  Phil Emery gets credit for accomplishing something that his predecessor was repeatedly criticized for not being able to accomplish.  Perhaps most importantly, the fans win.  This signing guarantees that Forte will be at training camp on time and there should be no distractions taking away from this team as they prepare for what could be a magical year.  With this signing done, the Bears are at full strength heading into training camp.  And that is fuller strength than any Bears team since the mid 80’s.

Is Bears Defense Overrated?

In an article by Gregg Rosenthal on NFL.com, the claim is made that the Bears defense is the most overrated group in the NFL.  He cites that the Bears defense has been in the top 12 in pts allowed OR yards allowed only once in the last five years.  Well, maybe he’s right.  That sounds like an awfully telling statistic.  As always, we’ll look at these stats for ourselves and come to a decision.

Here’s a look at some key stats since Lovie Smith became head coach in 2004:

As you can see, Rosenthal’s stat is correct.  The Bears have only been in the top 12 in pts/gm OR yds/gm only once, in 2010, in the last five years.  Looking at the chart, though, shows how carefully that “stat” was chosen.  While they have been in the top 12 only once in that time frame, they have been in the top half of the league in pts/gm in four of the last five years.  They’ve also been in the top half of the league in that category in all but one of Smith’s 8 seasons.  I also listed yards per play as a category to help account for the Bears offensive woes over the last eight (ten, twenty??) years.  You can see that the Bears rank higher in yds/play than in yds/gm in each of the last eight seasons. 

In claiming how overrated the Bears defense is, you can also see that Rosenthal smartly avoided discussing turnovers, one of the key staples of Lovie’s defense and the one thing that he preaches above all others.  Over these last 5 years, Chicago has been in the top 7 in turnovers four times.  They’ve also been in that top 7 in this category in six of Lovie’s eight seasons and have been in the top half of the league every year.  In fact, if I were to pull a Rosenthal and make up my own stat to show that the Bears defense is clearly not overrated it would be something like this:  Over Lovie Smith’s tenure as Bears head coach, Chicago has finished in the bottom half of the league in points allowed OR takeaways only once in eight seasons.

As far as I can tell, the only overrated thing here is Rosenthal’s article.

Vegas Lines Released for Season Wins Totals

Las Vegas has released their opening over/unders for 2012 NFL season win totals.  They have the Bears listed at 8.5 wins (-135 over, +105 under).  This means that if you were to bet on the Bears to win more than 8.5 games, you’d have to bet $135 to win $100 where betting on Chicago to win less than 8.5 games would net you $105 for every $100 you wagered. 

Immediately, I would think that the value would have to be on the over here.  After all, Chicago was at 7-3 last year before the injuries to Cutler and company.  Since then, we’ve acquired one of the best WR’s in the league in Brandon Marshall and the firing of Mike Martz (and subsequent hiring of Mike Tice) should help address the team’s biggest weakness; the offensive line.  The defense is a year older, so that should also be taken into consideration.  With all this in mind, let’s look at the schedule to see if we can get a good idea of how many games we’d expect the Bears to win.

Before we list the games, let me say that I project wins a little differently than most.  Instead of going through each game individually and projecting a win or loss, I go through games in small groups and project an estimated number of wins from that group of games (sometimes using decimals).  For example, if I thought the Bears were worse than both the Packers and Lions, I may be enticed into giving the Bears a loss in all four of those games if looking individually.  If I look at the group of four games together, however, I would likely say that the Bears would likely win one of those games (again under the assumption that I thought the Bears were worse than both those teams, which I do not).  So with this in mind, let’s look at the games.

I’ll analyze the games in four game blocks.  The first four are Colts, @Packers, Rams, @Cowboys.  A little unlucky in that we get two very weak teams at home and have to travel to two difficult teams.  We have to give wins for the Colts and Rams games.  As far as the two road games, I’d like to say that Chicago should win one of them.  Since they’re both on the road, though, that’s probably a little optimistic so instead of giving them one win, we’ll give them .8 wins over those two games.  Current projected win total:  2.8

The next four games are @Jaguars, Lions, Panthers, @Titans.  These are definitely four winnable games and, in fact, the Bears are early favorites in all four of these games.  While I do think the Bears will likely win each of these games, let’s give them one loss in this group.  Current projected win total:  5.8

The second half of the season starts with a home game vs. the Texans, @49ers, Vikings, Seahawks.  This is the toughest quarter of the Bears schedule.  The Texans and 49ers are very good and the Seahawks always seem to play the Bears tough.  Let’s say they win one of the Texans and Seahawks games and let’s also say they split the other two games as well.  Two wins here puts the projected win total at 7.8 games.

Chicago finishes the year with games @Vikings, Packers, @Cardinals, @Lions.  Let’s give the Bears wins at the Vikings and Cardinals.  For the last two division games, let’s give Chicago another .8 wins.  That puts the final projection at 10.6 wins.  That means that, if this was handicapped well, the OVER on season wins seems to have great value, even at -135.  So the last question is:  did we handicap it well.

Knowing that the over/under was 8.5, I thought I may have been too generous after having arrived at a projected win total of 10.6 games.  Then I looked at the individual game lines.  Vegas has Chicago favored in 11 games this year.  That leads me to believe that our analysis here was fair to the Bears and there is, in fact, value in the Over 8.5 Wins wager for our Bears in 2012.

Eagles RB McCoy Signs Extension, Forte Next?

According to multiple sources, Eagles RB LeSean McCoy has signed a 5 year contract extension worth $45 million with almost $21 million guaranteed.  As Bears Playbook noted a month ago, this deal could be the game changer in negotiations between Forte and the Bears.  Here's what we said:

 The potential game-changer in this situation is Eagles RB LeSean McCoy.  He offers a similar skill set to both Forte and Rice and should be paid comparably.  He is currently in the last year of his rookie deal and both he and the Eagles are eager to get a deal done this season.  If he were to sign for a number close to the Foster deal, it would put another top RB in that price range and would give Forte (and Rice) little reason to keep asking for more than that.  Currently, these two players are no doubt saying that they should be paid more than DeAngelo Williams (the significantly overpriced deal that threw a monkey wrench into this situation in the first place).  If, however, McCoy were to sign a deal comparable to Foster’s, it would be significantly easier for the teams to argue that Williams’ contract was overpriced as opposed to Foster’s and McCoy’s deals both being underpriced.  At that time, Forte may realize that he simply won’t get more money than those deals and may be open to a more reasonable long term deal.

For those who don't remember, Arian Foster's deal was a 5 year contract worth $43.5 million with almost $21 million guaranteed.  So, now that this situation has indeed come to pass, negotiations could go pretty smoothly.  Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune tweeted today that Forte's agent, Adisa Bakari, has been in Chicago for a few days.  If both sides are truly serious about getting a long-term deal done, this could happen quickly.  Stay tuned.