Forte Update

Don’t get excited, nothing has happened.  We do have new information that may explain why.  According to Jason Cole of Yahoo Sports, Forte is looking for a deal in the range of Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson’s.  As we’ve said before here on Bears Playbook, the market seems to be set for a player of Forte’s caliber.  That market is clearly about 5 years, $40 - $43 million total with $20 - $21 million guaranteed.  That is not even close to the 6yr/$55M/$30M guaranteed contract that Chris Johnson signed, let alone Peterson’s deal.  If this report is true, here’s what it means for the Bears:

1. A long term deal will likely not get done and Forte will play this season under the franchise tag.
2. It is possible that the Bears would pursue a trade, although finding a trade partner will be difficult if Forte won't sign for less than that much money.
3. Provided that Forte does indeed play under the tag this year, the Bears will revisit negotiations next year and hope to get something done then.

As far as revisiting negotiations next season, there is a possibility that things will go smoother then than they are right now.  First off, let’s note that Ray Rice of the Baltimore Ravens (a player of comparable talent to Forte) has also requested A.P. type money and he’s also playing under the tag this season.  The potential game-changer in this situation is Eagles RB LeSean McCoy.  He offers a similar skill set to both Forte and Rice and should be paid comparably.  He is currently in the last year of his rookie deal and both he and the Eagles are eager to get a deal done this season.  If he were to sign for a number close to the Foster deal, it would put another top RB in that price range and would give Forte (and Rice) little reason to keep asking for more than that.  Currently, these two players are no doubt saying that they should be paid more than DeAngelo Williams (the significantly overpriced deal that threw a monkey wrench into this situation in the first place).  If, however, McCoy were to sign a deal comparable to Foster’s, it would be significantly easier for the teams to argue that Williams’ contract was overpriced as opposed to Foster’s and McCoy’s deals both being underpriced.  At that time, Forte may realize that he simply won’t get more money than those deals and may be open to a more reasonable long term deal.

Bears Franchise Forte

The Chicago Bears today placed the franchise tag on RB Matt Forte.  For those unaware, let’s review exactly what that means.  It means that the Bears have until July 16^th to continue to try to work out a contract extension if they so desire.  If no deal has been struck by that date, then Forte will be paid the average of the top 5 salaries at his position.  For running backs in 2012, the price of the franchise tag is $7.7 Million. 

While it is a significant salary for one season, players generally have a very negative view of the franchise tag.  Most would prefer the security of a multi-year deal.  However, as Forte himself noted earlier this year, “A lot of teams franchise guys so that they can get a deal done or negotiate a deal.”  He has said that he’d be open to the tag if that were the motive for it.  If the Bears don’t plan on pursuing a multi-year deal and instead expect Matt to play out this season under the tag, however, there may be repercussions.  “I wouldn’t say holdout, but people probably wouldn’t know where I was,” Forte said.  “It just depends on what the motive of that is.”

In terms of a long-term deal, there are some stumbling blocks to getting a deal done.  First is the issue of durability.  Teams just don’t want to guarantee a lot of money to a player who plays a position that has such a penchant for injuries.  Secondly, the contract that the Carolina Panthers gave to DeAngelo Williams last year (5 years, $43 million, $21M guaranteed) was way above market value.  Forte and his agent will try to base their contract off of that one claiming that Forte is a better player and should be higher paid than Williams.  The Bears will say that they shouldn’t be obligated to overpay just because some other team did.  This is the same situation that the Ravens find themselves in with their running back, Ray Rice (who was also franchised on Friday). 

The optimists among us have some signs that they can point to as potential positives too.  The first is the Bears salary cap situation.  As they now stand, the Bears are about $28 million under the salary cap.  So they have no financial restraints to getting a deal done.  Also, if the franchise tag holds the full $7.7M would count against the cap.  If they were to get a deal done instead, they could spread the signing bonus over the length of the contract for cap purposes.  This would reduce the amount that Forte would count against the salary cap.  You would also think that the Bears would like to get this settled before free agency starts so they’d have a more exact idea of who they can afford to explore (at the WR position, maybe??).  Also, it might be a stretch but it could be a good sign that Matt wasn’t franchised until late in the day Friday.  New GM Phil Emery was said to re-open negotiations with Forte’s agent during the NFL Combine last weekend and it’s possible that they could be close to a deal.  We also can’t help but think that Emery would like to make a positive impact in his first big move in his new position.  What better way to do that than to lock up one of the Bears’ most important and most popular players?