Season Officially Over... Random Thoughts

Now that our season is officially over (with just a meaningless game against Minnesota remaining), I'd like to say good riddance to 2011.  What a miserable year.  This was a year that saw us lose FOUR TIMES to Green Bay, lose Jay Cutler, lose Matt Forte, etc, etc, etc.  Instead of droning on about what could have been, I'd rather go with some random thoughts about the current and future state of the Bears.

• Kahlil Bell ran well yesterday.  With 23 carries for 121 yards, he showed patience, burst and vision.  However, hearing people praise him the way they are after a game with 2 fumbles feels like the way people praised Caleb Hanie after an NFC Championship appearance with 2 INT's.  Just saying.
• The 7-3 Chicago Bears proved that this was a team with a lot of talent.  The 7-8 Chicago Bears proved that this is a team without a lot of depth.  We need better depth at QB, WR, S, CB, DE, LB.  Well, pretty much everywhere except RB, DT and, surprisingly, offensive line.  We need more talent at offensive line, but our depth is not bad with Lance Louis, Edwin Williams, etc.  Actually, scratch that, we need one more lineman, just enough to finally push the miserable Frank Omiyale off the roster.
• Josh McCown didn't play that badly last night.  He was far from the hero that some are making him out to be, but he was a definite upgrade over the play we've been getting from Caleb Hanie.  With that being said, however, how wonderful would it be to sign Kyle Orton to a backup role in the offseason?
• Please draft a wide receiver in the first round this year.
• I'm hearing more and more that Mike Martz may remain in Chicago next season.  I'm very much hoping that that's not the case.  I'd like to see a more physical ground game, a TE who provides a mismatch in the passing game (I thought Kellen Davis could fill that role and it still has to be determined if it's his skill level or Martz' scheme that has prevented that) and a big, physical wide receiver who can force defenses to roll coverage and give Jay a big target with a large catch radius when he's running for his life or just has to get rid of the ball quickly.  A promotion of Mike Tice might bring all those things while keeping the same terminology in place and not setting the offense back.  
• I wish the Carolina Panthers would've sucked a little more.  Remember, we have their 3rd round pick from the Olsen trade.  With the issues of depth I mentioned earlier, that could be a valuable pick.
• This might've been the best job Lovie Smith has done since he's been in Chicago.  He's seemingly had more fire and been tougher on players than I've ever seen.  The way he handled Henry Melton is a perfect example.  He made adjustments and played more man than in recent years instead of sticking to zone schemes to a fault (think the Patriots game last year).  The corners have pressed more and that has also been beneficial.  It's a shame that the job he's done won't be recognized as a result of injuries but, for the first time since the '06 season, I'm happy and completely satisfied that he'll be our coach next season.
• Another note on Martz.  While watching the MNF game, I just saw a 3rd and 1 where the Saints were set up to run the ball.  Brees saw a corner playing off of Jimmy Graham and threw him a quick slant for an easy conversion.  For those who don't know, Martz does not allow any audibles to be called.  Ever.  If he calls a run and they put 11 men in the box and don't cover the wideouts, you'd still better run the play he called and hand the ball off.  That kind of egotistic approach is completely unacceptable and needs to be removed.

Well, that's it for now.  I hope you all had a very Merry Christmas and let's hope for a better 2012!

Potential Unrealized

That will be the title of the 2011 Chicago Bears autobiography.  The Bears played a brutal schedule through the first 10 weeks of the season and came out of it with a 7-3 record.  After the San Diego game, we found out that Jay Cutler had injured his thumb.  We then found out that he'd be out approximately six weeks.  "He'll be back in time for the playoffs", we said.  "No problem."  Four weeks later:  problem.  We won't be in the playoffs.  It still hurts to say it, but it is getting easier with every Caleb Hanie INT.  Sure we still could mathematically get in if:
1) We win out AND
2) Either Detroit or Atlanta loses out AND
3) Seattle loses at least one of their last two games AND
4) Arizona loses at least one of their last two games AND
5) Dallas loses to Philly in week 16 or the Giants lose one of their last two games.
That's all.  Last week I said that unlikely as it was, the Bears could still defy the odds and make a run.  No more.  I'm done.  It's like they say; fool me once, shame on you, fool me four weeks in a row....

Last Chance Saloon

This is it.  Lose tomorrow and we're buried.  We may be buried anyway after last week's debacle, but a win vs Seattle will at least keep that slight glimmer of hope alive.  After all, we COULD beat Seattle.  We COULD then get Cutler back.  With #6 back under center, we COULD go into Green Bay and ruin the fudge Packers perfect season.  We COULD then get a win in week 17 in Minnesota propelling us into the playoffs.  We COULD then get Forte back.  Can you imagine the feeling in the locker room IF we got into the playoffs and had a healthy Cutler and Forte?  Shoot, we COULD win the Super Bowl!

Sure it's unlikely, but how likely was it that we'd:
1) Hold Oakland to FG's on SIX different drives, allowing just one TD and lose?
2) Give up a TD on a Hail Mary vs KC, allowing just 10 points total and still lose?
3) Shut out Teblow and company for 57 minutes and 54 seconds allowing a TD on a blown coverage with 2:06 remaining in the game*?
4) Recover an onside kick and then run out of bounds while trying to run out the clock?
5) Have a 59 yard field goal kicked against us to force overtime?
6) Win the toss in OT, go 3 and out, punt, actually stop the other team and get the ball back, march into field goal range and then fumble the ball?
7) Have a 51 yard field goal kicked against us in OT to lose?

Sorry for that painful trip down memory lane, but the point is that all of that happened against us in just 3 weeks.  Read them side by side and my earlier thoughts of what COULD happen don't seem so crazy.  But it can only start with a win tomorrow.  Lose tomorrow and we may as well start our draft preparations.

*I haven't heard anybody talk about it due to all the other madness that occured, but do you realize the significance of the Broncos scoring on that exact play?  Let's say that we don't allow a TD on that play.  Let's say they get to the 1 yard line and Teblow runs it in on the next play.  The time taken up would've taken the clock down to the 2-minute warning.  After that, when we recover the onside kick, we can take a knee 3 times and the game is over.  No need to run a play.  No chance for Barber to run out of bounds.  No chance for the Broncos to get the ball back.  None.  The game would be over.  Of all the plays to blow a coverage, we had to pick that one.  Seems fitting given how the rest of the game played out.  Anyway, let's hope for some semblance of an offense this week and a situation where mere inches and seconds can't burn us.

LOAF of the week

So, I've been away for awhile.  Most of that time has been spent vomiting while thinking about the last couple of weeks.  Usually hope springs eternal here at Bears Playbook, but not right now.  Not much reason for optimism.  The only optimistic viewpoint is that the Bears will still get in at 9-7 if the Lions or Falcons lose two of three.  Detroit would be more likely, with games at Oakland, home vs San Diego and at Green Bay.  All of this is moot, of course, if the Bears can't get to 9-7 which, for the time being, looks like a pipe dream.  Anyway, thought I'd start with the slight glimmer of hope that still exists.

Now to the main point of this entry.  LOAF is a term that Rod Marinelli uses in evaluation of the defense after every game.  If you get stuck on a block, you get a loaf.  If any player gets to the ground and doesn't get back up immediately and make a play on the ball, he gets a loaf.  If you get passed by a teammate, you get a loaf.  You get the idea.  Well, this week's biggest loaf is the inventor of the term, Rod Marinelli himself.

For 57 minutes, the Bears dominated the Broncos.  Tim Teblow could do nothing.  He proved his ineptitude against a quality defense and the Bears, up by 2 scores, were finally going to get another win.  Then Rod loafed.  He got soft.  Instead of keeping the defense that Teblow couldn't beat, he went to a soft defense with safeties 25 yards deep.  The type of defense that Teblow has beat week after week after week.  Even our own inept Caleb Hanie can beat a prevent defense (remember how good HE looked in the NFC Championship game???).  Teblow does this every week.  He sucks against normal defensive looks and at the end of the game, when the opposition is trying to protect a lead, he marches right down the field against a soft defense and wins the game.  If the Bears keep their base defense in place, the Broncos go 4 and out with three minutes to play and the game is over.  See you back in Chicago.  Still in 5th place in the playoff race.  Teblow exposed as the turd he really is.  All of us feeling better about our prospects for the season.  Instead, we all have our heads in the toilet.  Which smells an awful lot like where Marinelli's head was when he went to that defense.

Playoff Hopes Still Alive

After having a full day to digest yesterday’s abortion of a game, I’ve managed to take a step back off the ledge and take a clearer look at the Bears current position.  While I don’t feel any better about the game, it is certainly appreciated that the Lions, Giants, Cowboys and Falcons all decided to lose yesterday.  Those losses keep the Bears in the 5^th spot in the NFC and keep a playoff berth as a real possibility.  Let’s analyze these teams’ schedules down the stretch to get a better idea of how the playoff picture may pan out.

Before we get into any of that, though, let’s make a couple of assumptions.  If the Bears can’t win at least two more games, we won’t make the playoffs and this would become a moot point.  If we would somehow win three or four, we’d be a lock to make the postseason.  So for the purposes of this article, let’s assume the Bears win two of the last four.  Under that scenario, let’s assume a worst case scenario where the Bears beat Denver and both of their upcoming losses are to NFC opponents.  Now let’s look at the other teams and what they have coming up.

Giants and Cowboys:  One of these teams will win the East and the other will likely be left on the outside looking in.  The good news here is that these teams still have to play each other twice which guarantees a couple of losses collectively.  With nine wins, the Bears would own the tiebreaker over New York based on their record within the NFC.  The Giants could obviously get in by winning the division, which they could likely only accomplish by beating Dallas twice.  If that happens and Dallas were to win their two other games @TB and vs Philly, the tiebreakers would get tricky.  We already assumed the Bears beat Denver and one NFC team.  If they had lost to DEN and beat two NFC teams, they’d beat Dallas based on NFC record.  If not, it would depend on whether the Bears beat Seattle in week 15.  If so, they’d win the tiebreaker based on record vs common opponents.  If not, it would come down to strength of victory, a stat in which Dallas currently holds a tiny edge.  Bottom line:  root for Dallas to win the East.  If they don’t, our game at home against the Seahawks on December 18 is the biggest game left on the schedule.

Falcons:  Atlanta would figure to be the favorite for the 5 seed in the NFC.  Their remaining schedule consists of home games against Jacksonville and Tampa Bay and games at Carolina and New Orleans.  While the Bears do hold the tiebreaker over Atlanta because of their week 1 win, it’s hard to envision Atlanta going worse than 3-1 down the stretch.  Bottom line:  root for Cam Newton this week.

Lions:  The dirtiest team in the NFL finishes with games vs MIN, at OAK, vs SD and at Green Bay.  The Bears and Lions split the regular season matches and are both 2-2 in division.  The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents.  Currently, Detroit is 5-3 against these teams while Chicago is 5-4.  Bottom line:  the easiest way for the Bears to get into the postseason would be through a Detroit loss this week vs Minnesota.  Other than that (assuming they beat MIN and lose at GB), Chicago would still hold the tiebreaker if they beat Denver.  That win would tie the record vs common opponents and the next tiebreaker is NFC record, which the Bears would win.

So there it is.  None of it will matter if Caleb Hanie can’t play better but it’ll give you an idea which other games matter the most.  The other point of this exercise is to stress that the situation isn’t as dire as it felt yesterday.  We hold most of the tiebreakers and have a defense that should be able to contain the offenses of Denver, Seattle and Minnesota (more on that matchup in Denver later in the week). 

Martz strikes again

What a disheartening defeat to the lowly Chiefs today.  It's hard to remember a more inept offensive performance than the one displayed today.  Maybe the Panthers game last year when Todd Collins started at QB?  What is the common link (besides missing Cutler)?  A player who Mike Martz inexplicably handpicked being in a key position and failing miserably.  Last season, Todd Collins had no right being the backup QB.  As bad as Caleb Hanie has looked in these last two games, he is significantly more potent than Todd Collins.  That much was clear to anybody who saw Collins perform, except Martz.  And still, Mad Mike "re-promoted" Collins to the #2 position in the final weeks of the season.  Anybody else remember the moment in the NFC Championship when Cutler didn't come back on the field following a key Bears turnover and instead on trotted Todd Collins?  To nobody's great surprise (again, except Martz) Collins quickly went three and out, wasting fantastic field position, and flushed our Super Bowl hopes right down the toilet.

Today, history repeated itself.  Much like that Championship game last year, the Bears had a chance to win this game despite how ugly it was.  Again, however, it was a stiff who was handpicked by Martz who was put in a position to make the big play for the Bears.  On the most important drive of the game, despite his continued failures, the ball was thrown to Roy Williams who promptly did what he does best; dropping the pass and deflecting it into the hands of a defender.  INT.  Hope squashed.  Better luck next week.

Why is this failure of a wide receiver still here?  Better yet, why is someone with such a penchant for drops going over the middle into a crowd where this type of result is not only possible, but probable?  Where is Earl Bennett in all of this mess?  The only Bears wideout who can gain any level of separation and instead you throw it to this dud who can't separate or catch?  If you feel the need to take advantage of his size, why not throw him a fade where when (not if) he drops the ball it falls harmlessly to the pylon?

One more aside, while I'm on the playcalling mess.  I can't recall the last time this team set up a screen for a running back.  Does it not seem like a good idea to give Hanie an easy completion and set up some of our best playmakers in space, especially when the opposing defensive line is getting such great upfield penetration as they did today?  Am I missing something?  Or is this too simple of a solution for the "genius" to consider?

Back to the point, there are now reports out of Chicago that Martz will not be retained after the season.  I could not be happier.  So let me ask this favor.  Dear Mike, please take Roy Williams with you wherever you go.  He is welcome here about as much as you are, which apparently isn't very much.

Welcome to Bears Playbook

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