Playoff Hopes Still Alive

After having a full day to digest yesterday’s abortion of a game, I’ve managed to take a step back off the ledge and take a clearer look at the Bears current position.  While I don’t feel any better about the game, it is certainly appreciated that the Lions, Giants, Cowboys and Falcons all decided to lose yesterday.  Those losses keep the Bears in the 5^th spot in the NFC and keep a playoff berth as a real possibility.  Let’s analyze these teams’ schedules down the stretch to get a better idea of how the playoff picture may pan out.

Before we get into any of that, though, let’s make a couple of assumptions.  If the Bears can’t win at least two more games, we won’t make the playoffs and this would become a moot point.  If we would somehow win three or four, we’d be a lock to make the postseason.  So for the purposes of this article, let’s assume the Bears win two of the last four.  Under that scenario, let’s assume a worst case scenario where the Bears beat Denver and both of their upcoming losses are to NFC opponents.  Now let’s look at the other teams and what they have coming up.

Giants and Cowboys:  One of these teams will win the East and the other will likely be left on the outside looking in.  The good news here is that these teams still have to play each other twice which guarantees a couple of losses collectively.  With nine wins, the Bears would own the tiebreaker over New York based on their record within the NFC.  The Giants could obviously get in by winning the division, which they could likely only accomplish by beating Dallas twice.  If that happens and Dallas were to win their two other games @TB and vs Philly, the tiebreakers would get tricky.  We already assumed the Bears beat Denver and one NFC team.  If they had lost to DEN and beat two NFC teams, they’d beat Dallas based on NFC record.  If not, it would depend on whether the Bears beat Seattle in week 15.  If so, they’d win the tiebreaker based on record vs common opponents.  If not, it would come down to strength of victory, a stat in which Dallas currently holds a tiny edge.  Bottom line:  root for Dallas to win the East.  If they don’t, our game at home against the Seahawks on December 18 is the biggest game left on the schedule.

Falcons:  Atlanta would figure to be the favorite for the 5 seed in the NFC.  Their remaining schedule consists of home games against Jacksonville and Tampa Bay and games at Carolina and New Orleans.  While the Bears do hold the tiebreaker over Atlanta because of their week 1 win, it’s hard to envision Atlanta going worse than 3-1 down the stretch.  Bottom line:  root for Cam Newton this week.

Lions:  The dirtiest team in the NFL finishes with games vs MIN, at OAK, vs SD and at Green Bay.  The Bears and Lions split the regular season matches and are both 2-2 in division.  The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents.  Currently, Detroit is 5-3 against these teams while Chicago is 5-4.  Bottom line:  the easiest way for the Bears to get into the postseason would be through a Detroit loss this week vs Minnesota.  Other than that (assuming they beat MIN and lose at GB), Chicago would still hold the tiebreaker if they beat Denver.  That win would tie the record vs common opponents and the next tiebreaker is NFC record, which the Bears would win.

So there it is.  None of it will matter if Caleb Hanie can’t play better but it’ll give you an idea which other games matter the most.  The other point of this exercise is to stress that the situation isn’t as dire as it felt yesterday.  We hold most of the tiebreakers and have a defense that should be able to contain the offenses of Denver, Seattle and Minnesota (more on that matchup in Denver later in the week).