Vegas Lines Released for Season Wins Totals

Las Vegas has released their opening over/unders for 2012 NFL season win totals.  They have the Bears listed at 8.5 wins (-135 over, +105 under).  This means that if you were to bet on the Bears to win more than 8.5 games, you’d have to bet $135 to win $100 where betting on Chicago to win less than 8.5 games would net you $105 for every $100 you wagered. 

Immediately, I would think that the value would have to be on the over here.  After all, Chicago was at 7-3 last year before the injuries to Cutler and company.  Since then, we’ve acquired one of the best WR’s in the league in Brandon Marshall and the firing of Mike Martz (and subsequent hiring of Mike Tice) should help address the team’s biggest weakness; the offensive line.  The defense is a year older, so that should also be taken into consideration.  With all this in mind, let’s look at the schedule to see if we can get a good idea of how many games we’d expect the Bears to win.

Before we list the games, let me say that I project wins a little differently than most.  Instead of going through each game individually and projecting a win or loss, I go through games in small groups and project an estimated number of wins from that group of games (sometimes using decimals).  For example, if I thought the Bears were worse than both the Packers and Lions, I may be enticed into giving the Bears a loss in all four of those games if looking individually.  If I look at the group of four games together, however, I would likely say that the Bears would likely win one of those games (again under the assumption that I thought the Bears were worse than both those teams, which I do not).  So with this in mind, let’s look at the games.

I’ll analyze the games in four game blocks.  The first four are Colts, @Packers, Rams, @Cowboys.  A little unlucky in that we get two very weak teams at home and have to travel to two difficult teams.  We have to give wins for the Colts and Rams games.  As far as the two road games, I’d like to say that Chicago should win one of them.  Since they’re both on the road, though, that’s probably a little optimistic so instead of giving them one win, we’ll give them .8 wins over those two games.  Current projected win total:  2.8

The next four games are @Jaguars, Lions, Panthers, @Titans.  These are definitely four winnable games and, in fact, the Bears are early favorites in all four of these games.  While I do think the Bears will likely win each of these games, let’s give them one loss in this group.  Current projected win total:  5.8

The second half of the season starts with a home game vs. the Texans, @49ers, Vikings, Seahawks.  This is the toughest quarter of the Bears schedule.  The Texans and 49ers are very good and the Seahawks always seem to play the Bears tough.  Let’s say they win one of the Texans and Seahawks games and let’s also say they split the other two games as well.  Two wins here puts the projected win total at 7.8 games.

Chicago finishes the year with games @Vikings, Packers, @Cardinals, @Lions.  Let’s give the Bears wins at the Vikings and Cardinals.  For the last two division games, let’s give Chicago another .8 wins.  That puts the final projection at 10.6 wins.  That means that, if this was handicapped well, the OVER on season wins seems to have great value, even at -135.  So the last question is:  did we handicap it well.

Knowing that the over/under was 8.5, I thought I may have been too generous after having arrived at a projected win total of 10.6 games.  Then I looked at the individual game lines.  Vegas has Chicago favored in 11 games this year.  That leads me to believe that our analysis here was fair to the Bears and there is, in fact, value in the Over 8.5 Wins wager for our Bears in 2012.

Eagles RB McCoy Signs Extension, Forte Next?

According to multiple sources, Eagles RB LeSean McCoy has signed a 5 year contract extension worth $45 million with almost $21 million guaranteed.  As Bears Playbook noted a month ago, this deal could be the game changer in negotiations between Forte and the Bears.  Here's what we said:

 The potential game-changer in this situation is Eagles RB LeSean McCoy.  He offers a similar skill set to both Forte and Rice and should be paid comparably.  He is currently in the last year of his rookie deal and both he and the Eagles are eager to get a deal done this season.  If he were to sign for a number close to the Foster deal, it would put another top RB in that price range and would give Forte (and Rice) little reason to keep asking for more than that.  Currently, these two players are no doubt saying that they should be paid more than DeAngelo Williams (the significantly overpriced deal that threw a monkey wrench into this situation in the first place).  If, however, McCoy were to sign a deal comparable to Foster’s, it would be significantly easier for the teams to argue that Williams’ contract was overpriced as opposed to Foster’s and McCoy’s deals both being underpriced.  At that time, Forte may realize that he simply won’t get more money than those deals and may be open to a more reasonable long term deal.

For those who don't remember, Arian Foster's deal was a 5 year contract worth $43.5 million with almost $21 million guaranteed.  So, now that this situation has indeed come to pass, negotiations could go pretty smoothly.  Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune tweeted today that Forte's agent, Adisa Bakari, has been in Chicago for a few days.  If both sides are truly serious about getting a long-term deal done, this could happen quickly.  Stay tuned.

Bears Draft Review

Let’s analyze the Bears draft, both as individual players and what they say in the greater scheme of things.

Shea McClellin, DE, Boise St.  A versatile player, McClellin is a hard worker with great speed coming off the edge.  He played all over the defense for Boise St and is good in coverage.  He seems to be a better fit as a 3-4 OLB and there’s some question as to how well he’ll defend the run as a 4-3 DE.

Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina.  Widely considered a top-10 pick heading into 2011, Jeffery struggled with weight issues during the 2011 season.  Playing most of the season between 230-240 pounds, Jeffery looked significantly more sluggish than he did in his excellent 2010 season.  Currently at 215, the Bears felt comfortable enough with the 6’4” WR to trade up in the 2^nd round to draft him.  Jeffery could provide excellent play at flanker for the Bears or he could balloon again and have very little value.  A real boom or bust prospect.

Brandon Hardin, S, Oregon State.  Considered a 3^rd round prospect after 2010, Hardin missed the 2011 season after surgery to repair a broken shoulder.  Because he’s coming off an injury and a season in which he didn’t play, he is generally considered a reach at this pick.  He does have ideal size for a safety though (he played corner in college) and he will bring great speed to the Bears’ defensive backfield.

Evan Rodriguez, TE, Temple.  Played a lot of H-back at Temple, but as a pure pass catching tight end there were few better.  Numbers weren’t impressive due to limited opportunities, but he has great speed, great body control and excellent hands.  Due to his time at H-back, he’s a willing blocker and it’s not uncommon to see him downfield making blocks at the 2^nd level.

Isaiah Frey, CB, Nevada.  A corner with good size and speed who was expected by most to go undrafted.  Despite his size, he doesn’t play physical enough and needs to disrupt WR’s routes more.  He did tie for first in the nation with 21 passes deflected, although most attribute that to poor QB play in the WAC.

Greg McCoy, CB, TCU.  Another corner who was expected to go undrafted (who cares though, at this point in the 7^th round), McCoy’s primary production in college came on special teams.  He averaged 32 yds per kick return over 47 attempts in his time at TCU.

Instead of grading each Bears selection (or the draft as a whole), let’s analyze what this group says about Phil Emery and what he wants to do with this team.

 First, it says that he values speed.  Every one of these players has a 40 time under 4.6 seconds.

Second, he wanted more weapons for Jay Cutler.  Adding Brandon Marshall wasn’t enough.  He traded up to get Alshon Jeffery and used his 4^th round pick on a receiving tight end.  This offense should be significantly more dangerous this year than any in recent memory.

Third, he values special teams.  Every player drafted, except Jeffery, can contribute on special teams.  Emery showed that he values special teams with some of the free agents he pursued and the draft was no different.

Fourth, he values versatility.  This is more than just having guys who can fill in elsewhere in case of injury.  It’s much deeper than that.  For defenders, the value is two-fold.  First, it allows for more creativity/movement/shifting and general confusion pre-snap.  There were many times last year that Julius Peppers would line up at DT in order to create confusion or exploit a mismatch.  Shea McClellin gives the Bears another player who can play multiple positions.  The impact of his versatility, though, will be more relevant when offenses sub players in and change personnel packages.  Right now in the NFL, offenses seem to have an upper hand  with the different personnel looks they give a defense.  You see it every Sunday; defenses trying to sub players in at the last second because they don’t match up well with the personnel that the offense has brought onto the field.  McClellin will help neutralize that advantage.  He will play DE most of the time with his hand on the ground.  If needed, though, he can shift back and play linebacker.  He can effectively drop back into coverage.  His presence on the field could be one less mismatch for the offense to exploit.  It could be one less timeout wasted on defense.  That part of his game has to be considered when discussing his value.

The value of this type of versatility for offensive players is even clearer.  We can create the mismatches I just spoke of without subbing players on and off the field.  Imagine this:  the Bears can now line up in 21 personnel (2 RB’s, 1 TE, 2 WR’s) with Matt Forte at halfback and Evan Rodriguez at fullback.  Then, on the next play, they can keep the same players on the field, split BOTH of those RB’s out wide and have a legitimate 5 WR’s on the field.  I’m sure you can imagine the mismatches this would set up.

Bears draft DE Shea McClellin

With the 19th pick in the 2012 draft, the Chicago Bears have selected Boise State DE Shea McClellin.  Thought by most to be an ideal fit as an OLB in a 3-4 defense, McClellin is a high effort guy who is excellent when dropping back in coverage.  Upon further review of his game film, he played with his hand in the dirt a bit more than I remembered and he showed impressive burst off the snap in those situations and great speed around the edge.  He seems to lack some power and doesn't show much of a bull rush.  He does, however, show a knack of slipping through the cracks along the offensive line and getting into the backfield.  He is a high character guy, but I question his fit in our defensive scheme.  I would've prefered to see a Chandler Jones or David DeCastro with the 19th pick, but there's no doubt that we got a good football player.  Hopefully, he'll be productive in the Bears system.  He at least has one thing going for him.  Playing across from Julius Peppers certainly can't hurt.

My Bears Big Board

With the draft almost upon us, I thought I'd post my Bears Big Board.  The Bears have the 19th and 50th picks in the first two rounds, so here's how I'd rank my top 50 prospects in terms of where they'd fit for Chicago.  Keep in mind that this list is Bears specific.  For example, I think that Courtney Upshaw is a top 30 talent in this draft, but I have him listed as 46th on my Bears board since he doesn't fit as well in a 4-3 defense.  Here it is with a brief write-up on each player.

1. Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford.  No team, regardless of QB situation, should pass him up.
2. Matt Kalil, OT, USC.  Best LT in this draft.  
3. Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St.  Plays big.  Best WR in this class.  Think Larry Fitzgerald.
4. Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU.  Good size, speed.  Fluid hips.  AMAZING ball skills.  Former WR, plays like it.
5. Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College.  A top 10 player in this draft.  Great instincts and is excellent in coverage.  Good range vs the run and good ball skills.
6. Fletcher Cox, DT, Miss St.  Excellent size and elite speed.  Excellent bull rush and is very disruptive in pass rush.  His strength helps vs the run, but real value is vs the pass.
7. Mark Barron, S, Alabama.  Good size, speed.  Very hard worker.  Very good instincts, awareness.  Quick break on the ball.  A good tackler who's effective in the box.
8. Melvin Ingram, DE, S. Carolina.  Squatty frame with short arms.  Despite size, often gets OT's off balance with initial burst off LOS.  Great motor.  Great speed, power, moves.
9. Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse.  Ideal size.  Great athleticism.  High motor, high character.  A bit raw.  Ideal fit as a LDE.  Great against the run.
10. Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame.  Big.  Great ball skills.  Loads of potential.
11. David DeCastro, OG, Stanford.  Shows a mean streak in run blocking.  Maintains blocks through whistle.  Above average in pass pro.
12. Michael Brockers, DT, LSU.  Good power and bull rush.  High motor and high on-field character.  Huge potential.  Plays a bit high at times.
13. Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford.  Great in pass-pro.  Sometimes doesn't drop deep enough, more of a coaching issue than a talent issue.  Good run-blocker.
14. Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama.  Ideal cover-2 corner.  Big and physical in run support and good in a zone.  Durability is a concern.  
15. Quentin Coples, DE, North Carolina.  Explosive first step.  Played all over the line.  Good against run.  Good at beating double teams.  Sometimes quits plays early.
16. Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis.  Physical freak.  Space eater.  Doesn't get much penetration despite size and athleticism.  Short arms and lack of dominant tape are concerns.
17. Andre Branch, DE, Clemson.  High motor.  Excellent change of direction skills.  Can drop in coverage.  Flashes excellent burst off LOS, though inconsistent at times.  Attacks football for turnovers.
18. Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama.  A thumper.  Hard worker and very intelligent.  Best fit as a 3-4 ILB, but could play the SAM in a 4-3.
19. Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama.  Significantly overrated.  Looks sluggish in games.  Excellent ball security.
20. Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford.  Elite TE prospect.  Not super quick in and out of breaks, but reminds of Jimmy Graham the way he smoothly gets separation.  Also good run blocker.  Great ball skills.
21. Reilly Reiff, OT, Iowa.  Struggles against bull rush.  Looks to me as if he's often overmatched. Short arms are a concern, lets DEs get into his body.
22. Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina.  Excellent measurables and durability.  Above average at everything with no real weaknesses.  
23. Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame.  Excellent size and very smart.  Great in the run game.  Speed is good, not great.
24. Stephen Hill, WR, Ga Tech.  Big, fast and raw.  Needs to work on route running.  Has huge potential.  Excellent body control and huge catch radius.  Has struggled with drops.
25. Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor.  Little.  Fast.  Afraid to go over the middle?  Think DeSean Jackson.
26. Nick Perry, DE, USC.  Good speed off the edge.  Decent in run game.  Has shown a spin move, but needs to develop more pass rushing moves.
27. Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia.  Elite size, strength, speed.  Has shown a tendency to lunge instead of keeping balance.  His play and effort get lax at times.
28. Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin.  Average size.  Hard worker.  A true mauler in run game.  Good fit in a power run game.
29. Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin.  Best center in this draft.  Not an amazing athlete, but strong and smart.  Looks stronger on film than combine results would suggest.
30. Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall.  Disruptive.  One of the hardest workers you'll ever see.  Makes lots of backside plays due only to effort.  Slow to diagnose misdirection plays.
31. Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois.  Great speed off edge, but lacks any other pass rush moves.  Easily discarded against the run, a major liability in that area.  Think Mark Anderson.
32. Kendall Reyes, DT, UCONN.  Good size and great work ethic.  Disruptive vs run and pass.  Initial pad level is excellent but tends to rise up after initial contact to try to locate ball.
33. Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian St.  Big.  Quick.  Played in 1-AA.  Willing blocker in run game.  
34. Reuben Randle, WR, LSU.  Fast.  Good after the catch.  Good size.  Doesn't much care to block in the run game.
35. LaMichael James, RB, Oregon.  Speedster.  Durability a concern due to small stature.  High football character.
36. Doug Martin, RB, Boise St.  Good, not great at everything (physical nature, elusiveness, receiving, etc.). Ex linebacker.  Some issues with ball security.
37. Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma.  Underrated due to small size.  Consistently gets separation underneath.  Wes Welker clone.
38. Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan St.  Big.  Space eater.  Good snap anticipation.  Not a very effective pass rusher.
39. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M.  Converted WR.  Only 19 games at QB.  Very intelligent but little experience.  Great physical tools.
40. Robert Griffin III, QB, Butler.  Overrated.  Kendall Wright and weak defenses made him look better than he is.  Progressions never made him work from one side of the field to the other.
41. Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State.  Excellent size, length.  Character and inconsistent play are concerns.  Inconsistent effort is maddening.  On-field character very questionable.
42. Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson.  Not overly fast, but great ball skills.  Also good in the run game.  Doesn't have elite upside, but should be a good NFL TE.
43. Amini Silatolu, OG, Midwestern St.  Played in Division II.  Was a dominant run blocker and very good in pass pro.  Step up in competition and his mental accumen are question marks.
44. Lavonte David, OLB, Nebraska.  Undersized but has great potential as a WILL backer.  Excellent range and instincts.  Does a great job wrapping up as a tackler, not a thumper.
45. Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama.  Fast, hard worker.  A bit undersized with short arms.  Best fit as a 3-4 OLB.  Excellent against the run and very good as a pass rusher.
46. Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama.  Tremendous potential and character concerns.  Great hips and ball skills.  Also good in run game.
47. Marvin McNutt, WR, Iowa.  Durability concerns despite size.  Not overly elusive but decent top end speed.  Great fakes at top of routes.  Good hands but sometimes lets ball into body.  No major weakness.
48. Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina.  Big.  Physical runner, not elusive.  A little slow off LOS.  Despite great size, vertical is lacking.  Sluggish at times.  Bust potential?
49. A.J. Jenkins, WR, Illinois.  Nagging injuries a concern.  GREAT hands, never lets ball into body.  May struggle vs press.  Sometimes wastes steps in and out of breaks.
50. Devon Still, DT, Penn St.  Durability concerns.  Inconsistent play/effort.  Looks like a pro-bowler at times and a benchwarmer others.

Scouting for the NFL draft is clearly not a perfect science, so feel free to leave comments below on anything you agree or disagree with.  Either way, enjoy the draft.  Bear down!

Forte Update

Don’t get excited, nothing has happened.  We do have new information that may explain why.  According to Jason Cole of Yahoo Sports, Forte is looking for a deal in the range of Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson’s.  As we’ve said before here on Bears Playbook, the market seems to be set for a player of Forte’s caliber.  That market is clearly about 5 years, $40 - $43 million total with $20 - $21 million guaranteed.  That is not even close to the 6yr/$55M/$30M guaranteed contract that Chris Johnson signed, let alone Peterson’s deal.  If this report is true, here’s what it means for the Bears:

1. A long term deal will likely not get done and Forte will play this season under the franchise tag.
2. It is possible that the Bears would pursue a trade, although finding a trade partner will be difficult if Forte won't sign for less than that much money.
3. Provided that Forte does indeed play under the tag this year, the Bears will revisit negotiations next year and hope to get something done then.

As far as revisiting negotiations next season, there is a possibility that things will go smoother then than they are right now.  First off, let’s note that Ray Rice of the Baltimore Ravens (a player of comparable talent to Forte) has also requested A.P. type money and he’s also playing under the tag this season.  The potential game-changer in this situation is Eagles RB LeSean McCoy.  He offers a similar skill set to both Forte and Rice and should be paid comparably.  He is currently in the last year of his rookie deal and both he and the Eagles are eager to get a deal done this season.  If he were to sign for a number close to the Foster deal, it would put another top RB in that price range and would give Forte (and Rice) little reason to keep asking for more than that.  Currently, these two players are no doubt saying that they should be paid more than DeAngelo Williams (the significantly overpriced deal that threw a monkey wrench into this situation in the first place).  If, however, McCoy were to sign a deal comparable to Foster’s, it would be significantly easier for the teams to argue that Williams’ contract was overpriced as opposed to Foster’s and McCoy’s deals both being underpriced.  At that time, Forte may realize that he simply won’t get more money than those deals and may be open to a more reasonable long term deal.

Lance Briggs Given Contract Extension by Bears

The Chicago Bears on Wednesday signed linebacker Lance Briggs to a one-year contract extension.  The deal includes $7 million in new money and also frees up almost $2 million in cap room in 2012 for Chicago (for full contract details, click here).  Briggs, who had been asking for an extension since last season, was surprised that a deal got done this quickly.  “Didn’t really take long”, he said.  “I know that they spoke with (my agent) at the Combine and obviously we had to give free agency some time so the Bears could acquire the players they wanted in the first couple of weeks.”  “I’m … just very appreciative right now that the work has been recognized and that it got handled as fast as it did.”

Obviously, any time contracts are discussed around Halas Hall these days, it doesn’t take long until the discussion turns toward Matt Forte.  Today was no different.  When asked about Forte’s situation, Briggs said “I’d tell him to do what he feels is right.”  “I’ve been there and I hope that his situation gets resolved soon and I want him to be happy.”

Regardless of the Forte situation, Briggs himself is now very happy.  As one of only four Chicago Bear linebackers to ever reach 7 consecutive Pro Bowls (Dick Butkus, Bill George and Mike Singletary being the others), he is obviously a key contributor to a very talented team.  When asked how talented he thinks the Bears are, he said “On paper I think we’re very talented.”  He continued, “Very, very talented.  Would I call us the ‘Dream Team’?  No I would not.  But I would say we’re a championship caliber team.” 

Bears GM Phil Emery appears to have a similar view.  “We’re very excited for Lance and for the Bears”, he said.  “Lance has been a very valuable and productive member of our team.  Seven straight Pro Bowls is quite a record of success.  This is a very positive step for our team in an effort to win championships.”  Please note that last sentence.  Specifically, note the last letter.  With every word, Emery impresses more and more.  With some more sound moves like this one, the Bears just may contend for the first of those championships in 2012.