Bears - Colts Personnel Review

Here's my review of the Colts game from a personnel standpoint.  First, though, to new readers of Bears Playbook and anyone unfamiliar with the terminology, let's go over a quick description of the different personnel packages.

Personnel packages are identified with a two-digit number.  Obviously, there are 11 players on offense.  One is the QB and 5 are the offensive linemen.  This leaves 5 skill players on the offensive side of the ball.  This group is composed of RB's, WR's and TE's.  In naming the personnel group on the field, we list the number of RB's followed by the number of TE's.  Adding these numbers together and then subtracting from 5 tells us the number of WR's on the field as well.  It sounds like a lot, but it's very easy in practice.  For example, if there is 1 RB in the game and 2 TE's, that is called 12 personnel (1 for the # of RB's, then 2 for the # of TE's).  Since there are 5 skill players on the field, this leaves 2 WR's on the field in this situation.  Got it?  What if there was 1 RB, 1 TE and 3 WR?  That's 11 personnel.  1 RB and 0 TE?  That's 10 personnel.  Lastly, a 5 WR set is called 00 personnel (0 WR, 0 TE).

Every NFL team tracks the personnel that the offense sends on the field.  They also track tendencies that a team may show about how often they will run or pass out of each personnel group.  In preparing for an upcoming game, they will track the other team's last 4 games personnel tendencies.  So, finally, here is the chart for this week's game.

The totals for the game were 40 passes and 29 runs.  This doesn't seem like too bad a balance.  Look, however, at what the Bears did out of 11 personnel.  With this personnel group on the field, the Bears passed 20 times and ran only 5.  This is a whopping disparity.  So, when the Packers see the Bears trot out this personnel group onto the field this week, you can bet they'll be anticipating pass plays.  I am very curious to see if Mike Tice tries to use this to his advantage by running more often out of this personnel.  This fact also helps explain some things that I saw during the game.

For example, at 6:15 in the 2^nd quarter, Bears faced a 3^rd an 11 at the Indy 24.  They ran a draw play to Michael Bush.  I hated the play call at the time but now, after charting the personnel packages, I like it.  At that point in time, the Bears had run 11 plays out of 11 personnel and EVERY ONE was a pass play.  On 3^rd and 11, Indy would be expecting a pass of course.  In addition, the Bears had shown that they love throwing the ball out of 11 personnel.  So, although it didn’t work in the end, that play had a great chance to catch Indy off guard and succeed (it almost did.  We gained 8 yards on the play despite poor execution by Bush who ran straight into Garza).  

So, while you watch the game this Thursday, pay attention to what the Bears do when you see 1 RB and 3 WR's on the field.  This may provide significant insight into Tice's ability to maintain (or exploit) balance in his playcalling.