Bears defeat Rams 23-6

Good to get out of Dodge with a win.

That's how I felt after today's game.  That game today is kind of how I would imagine the game would look if it were played in St. Louis.  The defense played very well but the offense just looked off, as if seriously affected by crowd noise in a dome.

In any case, we ran the ball pretty well today (you wouldn't know it looking at the box score, but it was a definite improvement).  Other than the win itself, that's the best news from the game.  Chilo Rachal needs to clean some things up (those penalties are unacceptable), but he did have a few impressive blocks today in the running game.  Hopefully, we'll have Matt Forte back for next Monday's game in Dallas. If not, though, I think that Michael Bush showed enough burst and power in the running game that Dallas would likely still key on stopping the run first and foremost and that should open up some opportunities in the passing game.

As always, we will have more analysis (including our personnel breakdown) as the week progresses.

2-1.  Bear Down!!!

First Sack Review

Here is the first play of the game from the Packers debacle on Thursday.  Let's analyze why the breakdown happened.  Here is the pre-snap look:

Now, watch the gaping hole created by Spencer's down block followed by Webb's kick-out:

Now, look back at where Forte started.  Look at his feet.  He's on the hashmark.  Notice here that after "taking" the play fake, he's practically in the middle of the field.  The point here is that his weight is moving to his left in order to take the play fake.  At the same time, the blitzer is able to immediately cut across Forte's body because of all the space created by Spencer's movement to his right.  Also notice in the next picture that Forte is unable to cut immediately to his right to square up the defender because Jay is still in the way.

The next three pics show the block itself.  We can see here why Forte led with his shoulder instead of remaining squared up at contact.

Lastly, this is where Forte needs to do a better job.  Even though he was put in a bad position, he needs to stick with the blitzer and drive him away from the pocket instead of getting cradled up as he does here:

So, though Forte does need to do a better job than this, I definitely expect Tice to put his guys in a better position to succeed than this.  Not helping the situation is that Chicago had 8 guys in to block while the 2 receivers both basically ran go routes.  Adding to the madness was that neither of the tight ends or the running back released as an outlet for Jay when (not if) he got pressured.

More analysis of the game (specifically on all of the sacks) to follow.

Packers debacle - personnel review

Well, as I anticipated, going back and watching that game for the second time was almost as painful as the first.  What a load of crap.  Before anything else, here's the personnel chart from the game:

A couple things to note regarding the chart:

• There were a total of 22 run plays and 36 pass plays.  Much of that was due to the fact that we were behind as we had 21 runs and 22 passes through 3 quarters.
• The disparity between runs and passes out of 11 personnel continues.  It's even worse when you consider that 2 of the 9 runs out of that grouping were draw plays on 3 and 19+.  I also noticed (I don't have an exact count) that many of the plays we ran out of 11 personnel were out of the shotgun formation.  All of this adds up to a near complete lack of unpredictability for an opposing defense to worry about.

Here are the rest of my notes from the game:

The lack of desire to establish a running game early was incredibly disturbing.  This offensive line in completely incapable of protecting Jay if the opposing D-Linemen are allowed to pin their ears back and attack.  How the Bears coaching staff was unaware of this (especially after 2 years of Martz) is amazing.

Evan Rodriguez needs to play more.  Kellen Davis needs to play less.  Matt Spaeth needs to play even less than that.  He is brutal.

Cutler needs to get rid of the ball.  It's tough enough that the line can't protect, but when they DO give time, he needs to find someone or get rid of the ball.  Eliminate these negative plays.

We'll be back in the next couple days after going over the "All 22" film with more analysis.  As always, please feel free to comment below.

Bears - Colts Personnel Review

Here's my review of the Colts game from a personnel standpoint.  First, though, to new readers of Bears Playbook and anyone unfamiliar with the terminology, let's go over a quick description of the different personnel packages.

Personnel packages are identified with a two-digit number.  Obviously, there are 11 players on offense.  One is the QB and 5 are the offensive linemen.  This leaves 5 skill players on the offensive side of the ball.  This group is composed of RB's, WR's and TE's.  In naming the personnel group on the field, we list the number of RB's followed by the number of TE's.  Adding these numbers together and then subtracting from 5 tells us the number of WR's on the field as well.  It sounds like a lot, but it's very easy in practice.  For example, if there is 1 RB in the game and 2 TE's, that is called 12 personnel (1 for the # of RB's, then 2 for the # of TE's).  Since there are 5 skill players on the field, this leaves 2 WR's on the field in this situation.  Got it?  What if there was 1 RB, 1 TE and 3 WR?  That's 11 personnel.  1 RB and 0 TE?  That's 10 personnel.  Lastly, a 5 WR set is called 00 personnel (0 WR, 0 TE).

Every NFL team tracks the personnel that the offense sends on the field.  They also track tendencies that a team may show about how often they will run or pass out of each personnel group.  In preparing for an upcoming game, they will track the other team's last 4 games personnel tendencies.  So, finally, here is the chart for this week's game.

The totals for the game were 40 passes and 29 runs.  This doesn't seem like too bad a balance.  Look, however, at what the Bears did out of 11 personnel.  With this personnel group on the field, the Bears passed 20 times and ran only 5.  This is a whopping disparity.  So, when the Packers see the Bears trot out this personnel group onto the field this week, you can bet they'll be anticipating pass plays.  I am very curious to see if Mike Tice tries to use this to his advantage by running more often out of this personnel.  This fact also helps explain some things that I saw during the game.

For example, at 6:15 in the 2^nd quarter, Bears faced a 3^rd an 11 at the Indy 24.  They ran a draw play to Michael Bush.  I hated the play call at the time but now, after charting the personnel packages, I like it.  At that point in time, the Bears had run 11 plays out of 11 personnel and EVERY ONE was a pass play.  On 3^rd and 11, Indy would be expecting a pass of course.  In addition, the Bears had shown that they love throwing the ball out of 11 personnel.  So, although it didn’t work in the end, that play had a great chance to catch Indy off guard and succeed (it almost did.  We gained 8 yards on the play despite poor execution by Bush who ran straight into Garza).  

So, while you watch the game this Thursday, pay attention to what the Bears do when you see 1 RB and 3 WR's on the field.  This may provide significant insight into Tice's ability to maintain (or exploit) balance in his playcalling.

Bears Off to Fast Start

What an opening to the 2012 season!  It definitely looked a little dicey at first, but when we got settled in (an effort clearly expedited by the injury to Dwight Freeney) we looked downright dangerous.  It had a little bit of everything we have been waiting (and hoping) for.  Here are some of my quick feelings after the game:

There was great running by Matt Forte.  When we came out throwing and the O-line couldn't protect, we started handing the ball to 22.  The result?  We marched down the field, scored a touchdown and that seemed to settle the whole team down.

Speaking of that touchdown, we converted in the red zone.  We scored touchdowns where we used to kick field goals.  Michael Bush is a great acquisition.  Never mind the towering receivers.  That TD to Marshall was just too easy.

Brandon Marshall.  Beast.  In case anyone wasn't yet aware, Cutler LOVES throwing to this guy.  Doesn't matter whether or not he's covered.  That will get us in trouble at some point, but I believe it will work in our favor more often than not.  This guy is ridiculous.

The rookies.  Alshon Jeffery continues to impress.  On that TD pass, Cutler audibled to have Marshall occupy the safety to free up Jeffery on the post (don't even get me started on how great it is that Cutler can audible!!).  Evan Rodriguez had some nice blocks and continues to develop and Shea McClellin had some nice pressure.  I very much like that they aren't shy about moving McClellin to RDE at times (this used to be Peppers' call, he has the right to line up wherever on the line he wants... not sure if this is still the case).  I continue to like this rookie class more and more as time goes by.

As for the defense, I felt it was a good job overall.  I was fairly pleased with the amount of pressure we got from the D-Line (I stated during the preseason that I felt that Henry Melton would soon be talked about as one of Chicago's elite defenders.  This game made that look like a real possibility).  Awesome game by Tim Jennings.  Good game by Chris Conte.  Urlacher was pretty ineffective (to be expected) and I was happy to see him pulled early.

All in all, it was a great start to the 2012 season.  We're on a short week this week with the matchup in Green Bay looming, but I will have a breakdown of our personnel usage and playcalling in the next few days.

Random Thoughts/Quick Hits

I've been away for a bit, so I thought I'd post some random thoughts before tonight's game at New York.  First, let me copy and paste some notes I had taken while watching the last preseason game against the Redskins:

This Cutler to Marshall could be a serious hook-up for us for 10 years.
WOW Jay has a cannon.
That first drive was unlike any I can recall from recent memory.
I have NOT been impressed with Gabe Carimi.
Henry Melton could soon be thought of as one of Chicago's great defensive players.
Chris Spencer sucks.
I still sometimes root for the Bears to give Forte chances near the goal line.  Michael Bush might be changing that.
I'm not happy with our special teams coverage units.
I love McClellin's motor, but he REALLY needs to get stronger.
This looks like a top 5 offense in the NFL.
Alshon Jeffery looks better and better and better.  REALLY impressed.
Did I just see Lovie Smith smiling?
I repeat, I'm not happy with our special teams coverage units.
I hope Podlesh is ok.  I like him.
Scary injury to Brandon Hardin.  Thank God he's ok.
I wish we'd see more of Evan Rodriguez with the 1's, but he just showed why we don't.
Good job by our LT's today.
Most years we'd be SCREAMING to make Chris Summers our starting split end.  Now he's a practice squad guy.  What a difference a year makes.
As I typed that, Summers dropped what should've been a TD.
Jay Cutler was just asked who called the pass to Marshall on the first play, him or Tice.  Jay smiled and said "well, Mike (Tice) gives us some flexibility.  When we get single coverage out there, we're going to attack it."  LOVE that!!
Evan Rodriguez again flashing his potential.  I hope we see continued development from him.
Robbie Gould is great.

Some of this is what I'll be looking for tonight.  I'll be looking for more good play from our LT's (isn't that the first thing we all think of before each preseason game?).  I'm also hoping to see better play from our special teams.  We can't be giving up that kind of field position constantly (while I'm sure that Robbie has intentionally not kicked some balls through the end zone during the preseason, that's not the point).  I continue to enjoy watching the rookies McClellin, Jeffery and Rodriguez and hope to continue to see development from them.

Being the third preseason game, I will also be tracking our personnel groupings and what plays we run out of each one.  I'll be doing that all year and reporting on it right here every week, but I'll do that tonight also since the Bears will have gameplanned (to some extent) for this game.  I'm very interested to see how well Tice can maintain a healthy run/pass split out of each personnel grouping.  Ironically, our O-line issues might help in that regard.  Because of the need to help our line protect, we'll often have two tight-ends in the game (12 and 22 personnel).  That type of personnel on the field would usually key the defense to a running play, but we will be passing out of that grouping almost more out of necessity than design.  This will help keep a defense guessing and should help Tice as he gets accustomed to his new role of offensive playcaller.

Urlacher Undergoes Knee Scope

Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher underwent an arthroscopic procedure on his left knee on Tuesday.  Head Coach Lovie Smith described the procedure as a “minor scope” and said “there shouldn’t be any reason to really be concerned.”  Of course, this sounds like what Lovie has been saying all along.  That was before 54 started missing practices.  That was before this procedure.  That was before Urlacher’s status for the beginning of the regular season was in jeopardy.

I’m not saying that Lach won’t be ready for the regular season.  He very well may be.  Teammate Nick Roach had a similar procedure done before the regular season in 2010 and played in the opener 2 ½ weeks later.  What I am saying is that I don’t believe anything that Lovie or Emery tell us.  Take it all with a grain of salt.

Back to Urlacher, though, I guess the best we can do now is just hope for a smooth recovery.  Urlacher himself has said that he doubts he’ll be without pain in the knee for the entire season.  It is entirely possible that he’ll practice very little and then play on Sundays.  If anybody can do that effectively, it’s probably him.  What this all means for his contract status is a discussion for another day.  For now, let’s just hope that this doesn’t derail what could be a very special season.

Bears O-Line, They Are Who We Thought They Were

That was my first thought after watching the Bears first preseason game.  I’m not one to overreact to preseason games, especially the first one when four of our best players didn’t even sniff the field, but our offensive line continues to unimpress.  J’Marcus Webb played well into the fourth quarter and had a false start and gave up a sack.  Chris Spencer gave up a sack in limited action.  UDFA James Brown, a player I’m admittedly a fan of, played very poorly at LT in the end of the 4^th quarter giving up one sack and being at least partially to blame for another one.  RT Gabe Carimi surprisingly failed to generate any push in the running game while he was in.  In general, the interior of the line allowed pressure up the middle repeatedly.  All in all, it was one preseason game.  The fact remains though, that they’ve thus far given me no reason to believe they’ll be anything but bad this season.  Until they do, I’ll be working with that assumption.

Other notes from the first game:

Shea McClellin looked ok.  He flashed his speed and relentlessness in getting his first sack as a pro.  He did, however, get run over on the Broncos first touchdown and he clearly needs to play with better pad level in the running game.  He also needs to develop counter moves to beat O-linemen, but that will expectedly take some time and be a work in progress.  Summary:  he has good speed, a high motor and struggles in the running game.  He too is what we thought he was, at least for now.

Alshon Jeffery played pretty well.  He used his size well and displayed good hands.  He needs to continue to use his hands better to beat press coverage, but he looks like he could be a contributor sooner rather than later.

Major Wright made an interception on a tipped pass, but was later removed due to a hamstring issue.  His durability continues to be a concern.

I was hoping to see more of Evan Rodriguez, but most of his usefulness during the season will be through personnel mismatches.  The Bears will achieve this by moving him around from as in-line tight end to the slot to H-back, etc.  Since the Bears won’t gameplan until the third preseason game (and even then in a limited capacity), I don’t expect to know exactly how (or how much) we’ll utilize him until the season starts.

In the end, it was just the first preseason game.  It was quite ugly, but that is to be expected when Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Brian Urlacher and Julius Peppers all sit out.  The most important outcome was that nobody was injured and the Bears should’ve gotten some good film to look at and work off of as they prepare for next week’s game in Washington.

FINALLY!!! Bears open preseason tonight.

The preseason is finally upon us as the Bears will take on the Denver Broncos tonight at Soldier Field.  In a game filled with side stories, Bears fans will get their first look at the Jay Cutler to Brandon Marshall connection since they were teammates with these very same Broncos in 2008.  While this is the biggest story for Bears fans, the biggest story for most NFL fans will be their first look at Payton Manning with the Broncos.  When it’s all said and done, however, the fact remains that this is still week 1 of the preseason and the starters on both teams will be expected to play less than one quarter of action.  What else should Bears fans watch for?

Other than watching Brandon Marshall in a Bears uniform, I’m most eager to get a look at the performances of the Bears left tackles; J’Marcus Webb and Chris Williams.  While Webb appeared to win the “competition” for the starting job, Offensive Coordinator Mike Tice has acknowledged that Webb hasn’t played great and he is not a lock to start week 1 of the regular season.  If Webb struggles (especially with mental mistakes, which Tice hates), it is entirely possible that Williams will be starting the next preseason game and this could turn into a legitimate competition.

I’m also looking forward to seeing our rookie draft picks in action.  Specifically, I’ll be watching out for Shea McClellin (#99), Alshon Jeffery (#17), Evan Rodriguez (#88) and undrafted free agent O-lineman James Brown (#78).  For McClellin, watch to see if he can effectively use counter moves when engaged with an O-lineman.  Look to see if Jeffery can beat press coverage.  With Rodriguez, I’m most interested in where he lines up and how the Bears utilize him.  While the gameplan will be very vanilla, it will still be interesting to see if he lines up as an H-back, an inline blocker or at the Y in 21 (or 12) personnel.  As for James Brown, I’m also interested in where he lines up the most.  Judging by what I’ve heard from training camp, the coaching staff is taking a pretty good look at him at the LT spot.  I can’t help but wonder if he’s in consideration for the swing tackle spot.

So, it should be a very entertaining game from many angles.  I didn’t even mention Tice’s offense,  Brandon Hardin, Matt Forte or Jason Campbell.  I don’t think I’ve ever been this excited for a Bears season and likewise I’ve never been this excited for a Bears preseason game.  It’s finally here.

Bears First Padded Practice. 5 Things to Watch.

Finally.  The Bears will hold their first padded practice of the offseason tonight.  Now that the pads are coming on, we can start to get a much better idea of how certain things are coming together.  Here are the top 5 things I’ll be watching tonight:

Get that dummy out of here.  Tonight, Shea McClellin goes up against real competition.

5.  Shea McClellin.  How will the rookie look in pads?  Will he be pushed around in running drills?  More importantly, how will he look in the 1 on 1 pass rush drills?  Will he show a good repertoire of moves/counter moves?  This will be our first real look at Phil Emery’s first draft pick and I’m very anxious to see it.

4.  Gabe Carimi.  On the flip side of McClellin is Gabe Carimi.  How will he look coming off the knee injury that sidelined him for all but 6 quarters of 2011?  His comeback is vital for Chicago’s success this year and now we’ll get to see if he is fully recovered from that injury.

3.  Brian Urlacher.  Speaking of knee injuries, today we’ll get a good idea whether or not Brian Urlacher truly is “110% good to go” as he said.  Though wearing a knee brace, he hasn’t looked restricted at all thus far into camp.  Now we’ll see how he looks full speed and with contact.

2.  Matt Forte.  Full speed in pads is exactly what we want to see here.  Ever since he failed to condition himself properly heading into his second year, Matt Forte has been a workout warrior and has always reported to camp in amazing shape.  This year appears to be no different.  There was some concern though, due to the missed mini-camp, that he might not arrive in “football shape”.  He looked fast on a breakaway run yesterday, but today we’ll see just how fast he looks in pads.

1.  The left tackle battle.  Of course.  The biggest question mark on the team, the battle for the left tackle position between J'Marcus Webb and Chris Williams, will legitimately begin today.  It’s very hard to judge linemen without pads on, so today is the day the battle really starts.  This is where most eyes should be tonight.

So, it should be a lot of fun tonight.  Today is the day that it truly feels like camp begins.  We’re only 12 days away from the first preseason game against the Broncos, so the action should be coming fast and furious now.  That’s also what the action on the field will be like tonight.  Here we go.

Bears Report to Training Camp

Bears players arrive at the dorms of Olivet Nazarene
University for the start of training camp

The Bears have arrived at training camp at Olivet Nazarene University in Bourbonnais, IL.  The players will undergo physicals today and also take part in strength and conditioning drills.  Their first practice will begin tomorrow at 2:30 and that is open to the public.

What To Watch For

Everyone is excited to watch Jay Cutler throw the ball to Brandon Marshall.  It will also be great to see Matt Forte participating with the team for the first time this offseason (he reportedly looks to be in great shape).  However, the most important thing to watch now that the pads are on will be the performance of the offensive linemen, particularly the battle for the left tackle position.  According to Offensive Coordinator Mike Tice, Chris Williams and J’Marcus Webb will split the reps 50/50 with the winner becoming the starter at left tackle and the loser assuming the swing tackle role.

Williams and Webb have both had their struggles at LT and that is the reason this competition ever came about in the first place.  Williams’ struggles presumably can be (at least partially) attributed to injury, he was never fully healthy until the start of last season, while Webb’s troubles are attributed to inexperience.  With limited practices in pads, the most important component of this battle will be their performances in the preseason games.  The trouble with evaluating performances in the preseason, though, is that starters typically don’t play much.  With that in mind, it will be very interesting to see who gets the start in the Bears’ first preseason game on August 9^th against the Broncos and RDE Elvis Dumervil (if he’s not in jail by then).

This is quite possibly the most anticipated Bears season since the mid-late 1980’s.  With training camp finally upon us, we’ll begin to get a good idea of whether or not that excitement is legitimate.  Phil Emery said, “We want to win now.  We want to win championships now.”  That is clearly a sentiment that is shared by all fans.  The journey to accomplish that goal begins now and, may I say, it’s about time.

Forte Deal, Who Won?

By now, we all know that Matt Forte signed a 4 year contract worth about $31.5 million with $18 million guaranteed.  That amount of guaranteed money is about the same amount that the Bears would’ve spent if they had franchised Forte for two seasons.  So now, the debate shifts from “should Chicago sign Forte?” to “was this a good deal for the Bears?”  Let’s analyze.

In order to determine how good of a deal this is, let’s look at other running backs who have signed recently.

NAME	# OF YEARS	TOTAL CONTRACT VALUE	GUARANTEED MONEY
LeSean McCoy	5	$45M	$20.15M
Arian Foster	5	$43.5M	$20.75M
Ray Rice	5	$40M	$24M
Marshawn Lynch	4	$31M	$17M
Matt Forte	4	$31.5M	$18M

The first thing that jumps out at me is how close Forte’s deal is to the Lynch deal.  This would make me immediately think that this has to be a win for the Bears.  After all, Forte is a much more versatile back than Marshawn Lynch (he’s also not in prison, unlike Lynch).  When comparing to the other backs on this list, we see that they each got 5 year contracts as opposed to Forte’s 4 year deal.  This, in turn, led to more guaranteed money.  Not only that, but they each have a higher yearly average salary than what Matt received.  So this has to be a slam dunk for the Bears.  So why did Forte sign this deal?

To answer that, let’s dig a little deeper into that Lynch deal again.  The numbers appear to be very similar, but in breaking it down we can find differences between his contract and Forte’s.  After two seasons, Lynch will have received $17 million, the entire guaranteed portion of his contract.  At that point, the Seahawks can cut him loose if they so desire without owing him another penny.  Forte, on the other hand, will have received $18 million after two years with another $5.5 million in guaranteed money still on the table.  That extra money is in the contract as a $4 million roster bonus and a $31,000 bonus for each game for which he dresses in 2013.  This money is very likely to be earned (in contract speak, they call these LTE, or likely to earn bonuses).  So while Forte’s contract only guarantees $18 million, it is likely to be at least $22.5 million.  The only realistic way he’s not getting that extra amount would be due to a catastrophic injury.  So let’s say he takes out an insurance policy against such an event.  Then, for all intents and purposes, he can consider this a contract with $22.5 million guaranteed.  The icing on the cake then becomes the fact that it’s only a 4 year deal which allows him to hit free agency a year sooner and possibly get another contract while he’s still productive.  With this in mind, look at the chart again and imagine that that guaranteed number for Forte is $22.5 instead of $18.  Suddenly, it looks like he may have gotten the best deal of the group.

So, I guess the answer to the original question is that everybody wins.  The Bears were able to keep one of their best players without having to dish out a prohibitive amount of guaranteed money.  Forte was able to get a deal which gives him both financial security and the possibility of another lucrative deal down the road.  Phil Emery gets credit for accomplishing something that his predecessor was repeatedly criticized for not being able to accomplish.  Perhaps most importantly, the fans win.  This signing guarantees that Forte will be at training camp on time and there should be no distractions taking away from this team as they prepare for what could be a magical year.  With this signing done, the Bears are at full strength heading into training camp.  And that is fuller strength than any Bears team since the mid 80’s.

Is Bears Defense Overrated?

In an article by Gregg Rosenthal on NFL.com, the claim is made that the Bears defense is the most overrated group in the NFL.  He cites that the Bears defense has been in the top 12 in pts allowed OR yards allowed only once in the last five years.  Well, maybe he’s right.  That sounds like an awfully telling statistic.  As always, we’ll look at these stats for ourselves and come to a decision.

Here’s a look at some key stats since Lovie Smith became head coach in 2004:

As you can see, Rosenthal’s stat is correct.  The Bears have only been in the top 12 in pts/gm OR yds/gm only once, in 2010, in the last five years.  Looking at the chart, though, shows how carefully that “stat” was chosen.  While they have been in the top 12 only once in that time frame, they have been in the top half of the league in pts/gm in four of the last five years.  They’ve also been in the top half of the league in that category in all but one of Smith’s 8 seasons.  I also listed yards per play as a category to help account for the Bears offensive woes over the last eight (ten, twenty??) years.  You can see that the Bears rank higher in yds/play than in yds/gm in each of the last eight seasons. 

In claiming how overrated the Bears defense is, you can also see that Rosenthal smartly avoided discussing turnovers, one of the key staples of Lovie’s defense and the one thing that he preaches above all others.  Over these last 5 years, Chicago has been in the top 7 in turnovers four times.  They’ve also been in that top 7 in this category in six of Lovie’s eight seasons and have been in the top half of the league every year.  In fact, if I were to pull a Rosenthal and make up my own stat to show that the Bears defense is clearly not overrated it would be something like this:  Over Lovie Smith’s tenure as Bears head coach, Chicago has finished in the bottom half of the league in points allowed OR takeaways only once in eight seasons.

As far as I can tell, the only overrated thing here is Rosenthal’s article.

Vegas Lines Released for Season Wins Totals

Las Vegas has released their opening over/unders for 2012 NFL season win totals.  They have the Bears listed at 8.5 wins (-135 over, +105 under).  This means that if you were to bet on the Bears to win more than 8.5 games, you’d have to bet $135 to win $100 where betting on Chicago to win less than 8.5 games would net you $105 for every $100 you wagered. 

Immediately, I would think that the value would have to be on the over here.  After all, Chicago was at 7-3 last year before the injuries to Cutler and company.  Since then, we’ve acquired one of the best WR’s in the league in Brandon Marshall and the firing of Mike Martz (and subsequent hiring of Mike Tice) should help address the team’s biggest weakness; the offensive line.  The defense is a year older, so that should also be taken into consideration.  With all this in mind, let’s look at the schedule to see if we can get a good idea of how many games we’d expect the Bears to win.

Before we list the games, let me say that I project wins a little differently than most.  Instead of going through each game individually and projecting a win or loss, I go through games in small groups and project an estimated number of wins from that group of games (sometimes using decimals).  For example, if I thought the Bears were worse than both the Packers and Lions, I may be enticed into giving the Bears a loss in all four of those games if looking individually.  If I look at the group of four games together, however, I would likely say that the Bears would likely win one of those games (again under the assumption that I thought the Bears were worse than both those teams, which I do not).  So with this in mind, let’s look at the games.

I’ll analyze the games in four game blocks.  The first four are Colts, @Packers, Rams, @Cowboys.  A little unlucky in that we get two very weak teams at home and have to travel to two difficult teams.  We have to give wins for the Colts and Rams games.  As far as the two road games, I’d like to say that Chicago should win one of them.  Since they’re both on the road, though, that’s probably a little optimistic so instead of giving them one win, we’ll give them .8 wins over those two games.  Current projected win total:  2.8

The next four games are @Jaguars, Lions, Panthers, @Titans.  These are definitely four winnable games and, in fact, the Bears are early favorites in all four of these games.  While I do think the Bears will likely win each of these games, let’s give them one loss in this group.  Current projected win total:  5.8

The second half of the season starts with a home game vs. the Texans, @49ers, Vikings, Seahawks.  This is the toughest quarter of the Bears schedule.  The Texans and 49ers are very good and the Seahawks always seem to play the Bears tough.  Let’s say they win one of the Texans and Seahawks games and let’s also say they split the other two games as well.  Two wins here puts the projected win total at 7.8 games.

Chicago finishes the year with games @Vikings, Packers, @Cardinals, @Lions.  Let’s give the Bears wins at the Vikings and Cardinals.  For the last two division games, let’s give Chicago another .8 wins.  That puts the final projection at 10.6 wins.  That means that, if this was handicapped well, the OVER on season wins seems to have great value, even at -135.  So the last question is:  did we handicap it well.

Knowing that the over/under was 8.5, I thought I may have been too generous after having arrived at a projected win total of 10.6 games.  Then I looked at the individual game lines.  Vegas has Chicago favored in 11 games this year.  That leads me to believe that our analysis here was fair to the Bears and there is, in fact, value in the Over 8.5 Wins wager for our Bears in 2012.

Eagles RB McCoy Signs Extension, Forte Next?

According to multiple sources, Eagles RB LeSean McCoy has signed a 5 year contract extension worth $45 million with almost $21 million guaranteed.  As Bears Playbook noted a month ago, this deal could be the game changer in negotiations between Forte and the Bears.  Here's what we said:

 The potential game-changer in this situation is Eagles RB LeSean McCoy.  He offers a similar skill set to both Forte and Rice and should be paid comparably.  He is currently in the last year of his rookie deal and both he and the Eagles are eager to get a deal done this season.  If he were to sign for a number close to the Foster deal, it would put another top RB in that price range and would give Forte (and Rice) little reason to keep asking for more than that.  Currently, these two players are no doubt saying that they should be paid more than DeAngelo Williams (the significantly overpriced deal that threw a monkey wrench into this situation in the first place).  If, however, McCoy were to sign a deal comparable to Foster’s, it would be significantly easier for the teams to argue that Williams’ contract was overpriced as opposed to Foster’s and McCoy’s deals both being underpriced.  At that time, Forte may realize that he simply won’t get more money than those deals and may be open to a more reasonable long term deal.

For those who don't remember, Arian Foster's deal was a 5 year contract worth $43.5 million with almost $21 million guaranteed.  So, now that this situation has indeed come to pass, negotiations could go pretty smoothly.  Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune tweeted today that Forte's agent, Adisa Bakari, has been in Chicago for a few days.  If both sides are truly serious about getting a long-term deal done, this could happen quickly.  Stay tuned.

Bears Draft Review

Let’s analyze the Bears draft, both as individual players and what they say in the greater scheme of things.

Shea McClellin, DE, Boise St.  A versatile player, McClellin is a hard worker with great speed coming off the edge.  He played all over the defense for Boise St and is good in coverage.  He seems to be a better fit as a 3-4 OLB and there’s some question as to how well he’ll defend the run as a 4-3 DE.

Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina.  Widely considered a top-10 pick heading into 2011, Jeffery struggled with weight issues during the 2011 season.  Playing most of the season between 230-240 pounds, Jeffery looked significantly more sluggish than he did in his excellent 2010 season.  Currently at 215, the Bears felt comfortable enough with the 6’4” WR to trade up in the 2^nd round to draft him.  Jeffery could provide excellent play at flanker for the Bears or he could balloon again and have very little value.  A real boom or bust prospect.

Brandon Hardin, S, Oregon State.  Considered a 3^rd round prospect after 2010, Hardin missed the 2011 season after surgery to repair a broken shoulder.  Because he’s coming off an injury and a season in which he didn’t play, he is generally considered a reach at this pick.  He does have ideal size for a safety though (he played corner in college) and he will bring great speed to the Bears’ defensive backfield.

Evan Rodriguez, TE, Temple.  Played a lot of H-back at Temple, but as a pure pass catching tight end there were few better.  Numbers weren’t impressive due to limited opportunities, but he has great speed, great body control and excellent hands.  Due to his time at H-back, he’s a willing blocker and it’s not uncommon to see him downfield making blocks at the 2^nd level.

Isaiah Frey, CB, Nevada.  A corner with good size and speed who was expected by most to go undrafted.  Despite his size, he doesn’t play physical enough and needs to disrupt WR’s routes more.  He did tie for first in the nation with 21 passes deflected, although most attribute that to poor QB play in the WAC.

Greg McCoy, CB, TCU.  Another corner who was expected to go undrafted (who cares though, at this point in the 7^th round), McCoy’s primary production in college came on special teams.  He averaged 32 yds per kick return over 47 attempts in his time at TCU.

Instead of grading each Bears selection (or the draft as a whole), let’s analyze what this group says about Phil Emery and what he wants to do with this team.

 First, it says that he values speed.  Every one of these players has a 40 time under 4.6 seconds.

Second, he wanted more weapons for Jay Cutler.  Adding Brandon Marshall wasn’t enough.  He traded up to get Alshon Jeffery and used his 4^th round pick on a receiving tight end.  This offense should be significantly more dangerous this year than any in recent memory.

Third, he values special teams.  Every player drafted, except Jeffery, can contribute on special teams.  Emery showed that he values special teams with some of the free agents he pursued and the draft was no different.

Fourth, he values versatility.  This is more than just having guys who can fill in elsewhere in case of injury.  It’s much deeper than that.  For defenders, the value is two-fold.  First, it allows for more creativity/movement/shifting and general confusion pre-snap.  There were many times last year that Julius Peppers would line up at DT in order to create confusion or exploit a mismatch.  Shea McClellin gives the Bears another player who can play multiple positions.  The impact of his versatility, though, will be more relevant when offenses sub players in and change personnel packages.  Right now in the NFL, offenses seem to have an upper hand  with the different personnel looks they give a defense.  You see it every Sunday; defenses trying to sub players in at the last second because they don’t match up well with the personnel that the offense has brought onto the field.  McClellin will help neutralize that advantage.  He will play DE most of the time with his hand on the ground.  If needed, though, he can shift back and play linebacker.  He can effectively drop back into coverage.  His presence on the field could be one less mismatch for the offense to exploit.  It could be one less timeout wasted on defense.  That part of his game has to be considered when discussing his value.

The value of this type of versatility for offensive players is even clearer.  We can create the mismatches I just spoke of without subbing players on and off the field.  Imagine this:  the Bears can now line up in 21 personnel (2 RB’s, 1 TE, 2 WR’s) with Matt Forte at halfback and Evan Rodriguez at fullback.  Then, on the next play, they can keep the same players on the field, split BOTH of those RB’s out wide and have a legitimate 5 WR’s on the field.  I’m sure you can imagine the mismatches this would set up.

Bears draft DE Shea McClellin

With the 19th pick in the 2012 draft, the Chicago Bears have selected Boise State DE Shea McClellin.  Thought by most to be an ideal fit as an OLB in a 3-4 defense, McClellin is a high effort guy who is excellent when dropping back in coverage.  Upon further review of his game film, he played with his hand in the dirt a bit more than I remembered and he showed impressive burst off the snap in those situations and great speed around the edge.  He seems to lack some power and doesn't show much of a bull rush.  He does, however, show a knack of slipping through the cracks along the offensive line and getting into the backfield.  He is a high character guy, but I question his fit in our defensive scheme.  I would've prefered to see a Chandler Jones or David DeCastro with the 19th pick, but there's no doubt that we got a good football player.  Hopefully, he'll be productive in the Bears system.  He at least has one thing going for him.  Playing across from Julius Peppers certainly can't hurt.

My Bears Big Board

With the draft almost upon us, I thought I'd post my Bears Big Board.  The Bears have the 19th and 50th picks in the first two rounds, so here's how I'd rank my top 50 prospects in terms of where they'd fit for Chicago.  Keep in mind that this list is Bears specific.  For example, I think that Courtney Upshaw is a top 30 talent in this draft, but I have him listed as 46th on my Bears board since he doesn't fit as well in a 4-3 defense.  Here it is with a brief write-up on each player.

1. Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford.  No team, regardless of QB situation, should pass him up.
2. Matt Kalil, OT, USC.  Best LT in this draft.  
3. Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St.  Plays big.  Best WR in this class.  Think Larry Fitzgerald.
4. Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU.  Good size, speed.  Fluid hips.  AMAZING ball skills.  Former WR, plays like it.
5. Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College.  A top 10 player in this draft.  Great instincts and is excellent in coverage.  Good range vs the run and good ball skills.
6. Fletcher Cox, DT, Miss St.  Excellent size and elite speed.  Excellent bull rush and is very disruptive in pass rush.  His strength helps vs the run, but real value is vs the pass.
7. Mark Barron, S, Alabama.  Good size, speed.  Very hard worker.  Very good instincts, awareness.  Quick break on the ball.  A good tackler who's effective in the box.
8. Melvin Ingram, DE, S. Carolina.  Squatty frame with short arms.  Despite size, often gets OT's off balance with initial burst off LOS.  Great motor.  Great speed, power, moves.
9. Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse.  Ideal size.  Great athleticism.  High motor, high character.  A bit raw.  Ideal fit as a LDE.  Great against the run.
10. Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame.  Big.  Great ball skills.  Loads of potential.
11. David DeCastro, OG, Stanford.  Shows a mean streak in run blocking.  Maintains blocks through whistle.  Above average in pass pro.
12. Michael Brockers, DT, LSU.  Good power and bull rush.  High motor and high on-field character.  Huge potential.  Plays a bit high at times.
13. Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford.  Great in pass-pro.  Sometimes doesn't drop deep enough, more of a coaching issue than a talent issue.  Good run-blocker.
14. Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama.  Ideal cover-2 corner.  Big and physical in run support and good in a zone.  Durability is a concern.  
15. Quentin Coples, DE, North Carolina.  Explosive first step.  Played all over the line.  Good against run.  Good at beating double teams.  Sometimes quits plays early.
16. Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis.  Physical freak.  Space eater.  Doesn't get much penetration despite size and athleticism.  Short arms and lack of dominant tape are concerns.
17. Andre Branch, DE, Clemson.  High motor.  Excellent change of direction skills.  Can drop in coverage.  Flashes excellent burst off LOS, though inconsistent at times.  Attacks football for turnovers.
18. Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama.  A thumper.  Hard worker and very intelligent.  Best fit as a 3-4 ILB, but could play the SAM in a 4-3.
19. Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama.  Significantly overrated.  Looks sluggish in games.  Excellent ball security.
20. Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford.  Elite TE prospect.  Not super quick in and out of breaks, but reminds of Jimmy Graham the way he smoothly gets separation.  Also good run blocker.  Great ball skills.
21. Reilly Reiff, OT, Iowa.  Struggles against bull rush.  Looks to me as if he's often overmatched. Short arms are a concern, lets DEs get into his body.
22. Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina.  Excellent measurables and durability.  Above average at everything with no real weaknesses.  
23. Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame.  Excellent size and very smart.  Great in the run game.  Speed is good, not great.
24. Stephen Hill, WR, Ga Tech.  Big, fast and raw.  Needs to work on route running.  Has huge potential.  Excellent body control and huge catch radius.  Has struggled with drops.
25. Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor.  Little.  Fast.  Afraid to go over the middle?  Think DeSean Jackson.
26. Nick Perry, DE, USC.  Good speed off the edge.  Decent in run game.  Has shown a spin move, but needs to develop more pass rushing moves.
27. Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia.  Elite size, strength, speed.  Has shown a tendency to lunge instead of keeping balance.  His play and effort get lax at times.
28. Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin.  Average size.  Hard worker.  A true mauler in run game.  Good fit in a power run game.
29. Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin.  Best center in this draft.  Not an amazing athlete, but strong and smart.  Looks stronger on film than combine results would suggest.
30. Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall.  Disruptive.  One of the hardest workers you'll ever see.  Makes lots of backside plays due only to effort.  Slow to diagnose misdirection plays.
31. Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois.  Great speed off edge, but lacks any other pass rush moves.  Easily discarded against the run, a major liability in that area.  Think Mark Anderson.
32. Kendall Reyes, DT, UCONN.  Good size and great work ethic.  Disruptive vs run and pass.  Initial pad level is excellent but tends to rise up after initial contact to try to locate ball.
33. Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian St.  Big.  Quick.  Played in 1-AA.  Willing blocker in run game.  
34. Reuben Randle, WR, LSU.  Fast.  Good after the catch.  Good size.  Doesn't much care to block in the run game.
35. LaMichael James, RB, Oregon.  Speedster.  Durability a concern due to small stature.  High football character.
36. Doug Martin, RB, Boise St.  Good, not great at everything (physical nature, elusiveness, receiving, etc.). Ex linebacker.  Some issues with ball security.
37. Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma.  Underrated due to small size.  Consistently gets separation underneath.  Wes Welker clone.
38. Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan St.  Big.  Space eater.  Good snap anticipation.  Not a very effective pass rusher.
39. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M.  Converted WR.  Only 19 games at QB.  Very intelligent but little experience.  Great physical tools.
40. Robert Griffin III, QB, Butler.  Overrated.  Kendall Wright and weak defenses made him look better than he is.  Progressions never made him work from one side of the field to the other.
41. Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State.  Excellent size, length.  Character and inconsistent play are concerns.  Inconsistent effort is maddening.  On-field character very questionable.
42. Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson.  Not overly fast, but great ball skills.  Also good in the run game.  Doesn't have elite upside, but should be a good NFL TE.
43. Amini Silatolu, OG, Midwestern St.  Played in Division II.  Was a dominant run blocker and very good in pass pro.  Step up in competition and his mental accumen are question marks.
44. Lavonte David, OLB, Nebraska.  Undersized but has great potential as a WILL backer.  Excellent range and instincts.  Does a great job wrapping up as a tackler, not a thumper.
45. Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama.  Fast, hard worker.  A bit undersized with short arms.  Best fit as a 3-4 OLB.  Excellent against the run and very good as a pass rusher.
46. Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama.  Tremendous potential and character concerns.  Great hips and ball skills.  Also good in run game.
47. Marvin McNutt, WR, Iowa.  Durability concerns despite size.  Not overly elusive but decent top end speed.  Great fakes at top of routes.  Good hands but sometimes lets ball into body.  No major weakness.
48. Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina.  Big.  Physical runner, not elusive.  A little slow off LOS.  Despite great size, vertical is lacking.  Sluggish at times.  Bust potential?
49. A.J. Jenkins, WR, Illinois.  Nagging injuries a concern.  GREAT hands, never lets ball into body.  May struggle vs press.  Sometimes wastes steps in and out of breaks.
50. Devon Still, DT, Penn St.  Durability concerns.  Inconsistent play/effort.  Looks like a pro-bowler at times and a benchwarmer others.

Scouting for the NFL draft is clearly not a perfect science, so feel free to leave comments below on anything you agree or disagree with.  Either way, enjoy the draft.  Bear down!

Forte Update

Don’t get excited, nothing has happened.  We do have new information that may explain why.  According to Jason Cole of Yahoo Sports, Forte is looking for a deal in the range of Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson’s.  As we’ve said before here on Bears Playbook, the market seems to be set for a player of Forte’s caliber.  That market is clearly about 5 years, $40 - $43 million total with $20 - $21 million guaranteed.  That is not even close to the 6yr/$55M/$30M guaranteed contract that Chris Johnson signed, let alone Peterson’s deal.  If this report is true, here’s what it means for the Bears:

1. A long term deal will likely not get done and Forte will play this season under the franchise tag.
2. It is possible that the Bears would pursue a trade, although finding a trade partner will be difficult if Forte won't sign for less than that much money.
3. Provided that Forte does indeed play under the tag this year, the Bears will revisit negotiations next year and hope to get something done then.

As far as revisiting negotiations next season, there is a possibility that things will go smoother then than they are right now.  First off, let’s note that Ray Rice of the Baltimore Ravens (a player of comparable talent to Forte) has also requested A.P. type money and he’s also playing under the tag this season.  The potential game-changer in this situation is Eagles RB LeSean McCoy.  He offers a similar skill set to both Forte and Rice and should be paid comparably.  He is currently in the last year of his rookie deal and both he and the Eagles are eager to get a deal done this season.  If he were to sign for a number close to the Foster deal, it would put another top RB in that price range and would give Forte (and Rice) little reason to keep asking for more than that.  Currently, these two players are no doubt saying that they should be paid more than DeAngelo Williams (the significantly overpriced deal that threw a monkey wrench into this situation in the first place).  If, however, McCoy were to sign a deal comparable to Foster’s, it would be significantly easier for the teams to argue that Williams’ contract was overpriced as opposed to Foster’s and McCoy’s deals both being underpriced.  At that time, Forte may realize that he simply won’t get more money than those deals and may be open to a more reasonable long term deal.

Lance Briggs Given Contract Extension by Bears

The Chicago Bears on Wednesday signed linebacker Lance Briggs to a one-year contract extension.  The deal includes $7 million in new money and also frees up almost $2 million in cap room in 2012 for Chicago (for full contract details, click here).  Briggs, who had been asking for an extension since last season, was surprised that a deal got done this quickly.  “Didn’t really take long”, he said.  “I know that they spoke with (my agent) at the Combine and obviously we had to give free agency some time so the Bears could acquire the players they wanted in the first couple of weeks.”  “I’m … just very appreciative right now that the work has been recognized and that it got handled as fast as it did.”

Obviously, any time contracts are discussed around Halas Hall these days, it doesn’t take long until the discussion turns toward Matt Forte.  Today was no different.  When asked about Forte’s situation, Briggs said “I’d tell him to do what he feels is right.”  “I’ve been there and I hope that his situation gets resolved soon and I want him to be happy.”

Regardless of the Forte situation, Briggs himself is now very happy.  As one of only four Chicago Bear linebackers to ever reach 7 consecutive Pro Bowls (Dick Butkus, Bill George and Mike Singletary being the others), he is obviously a key contributor to a very talented team.  When asked how talented he thinks the Bears are, he said “On paper I think we’re very talented.”  He continued, “Very, very talented.  Would I call us the ‘Dream Team’?  No I would not.  But I would say we’re a championship caliber team.” 

Bears GM Phil Emery appears to have a similar view.  “We’re very excited for Lance and for the Bears”, he said.  “Lance has been a very valuable and productive member of our team.  Seven straight Pro Bowls is quite a record of success.  This is a very positive step for our team in an effort to win championships.”  Please note that last sentence.  Specifically, note the last letter.  With every word, Emery impresses more and more.  With some more sound moves like this one, the Bears just may contend for the first of those championships in 2012.  

Bears announce pre-season schedule

The NFL has announced that the Bears will open the pre-season this year at home against the Denver Broncos.  That game will pit Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall against their former team, now led by future Hall-of-Famer Peyton Manning.

Their second game will be at home versus the Washington Redskins and will likely feature another highly anticipated QB debut.  The Redskins are expected to select Baylor QB Robert Griffin III with the second overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft.

In their third game, the game in which the starters typically play the most, the Bears will have a good test when they travel to New York to take on the World Champion New York Giants in a nationally televised game.

Chicago will then finish up the preseason against the Browns, a tradition that has continued since Lovie Smith's arrival in 2004.

So, although many fans despise the preseason, it can't be denied that the preseason this year has many intriguing story lines and should provide great entertainment as we head into an exciting 2012 NFL season.

Bears Sign RB Michael Bush

The Bears have signed free agent RB Michael Bush to a 4 year, $14 million deal.  This is a good value for the Bears.  Bush was widely considered the top free agent RB available and will provide not only an excellent 1-2 punch with Matt Forte, but will also provide insurance in case Forte and the Bears can’t come to terms on a long-term deal and Matt holds out.

It’s this issue with Forte’s contract, however, that adds a level of uneasiness to this signing.  For the third year in a row, the Bears have given significant money to a backup running back while refusing to lock up their premier ball carrier long-term.  This fact has clearly not been lost on Matt Forte who tweeted the following after hearing about the Bush signing:  “There’s only so many times a man that has done everything he’s been asked to do can be disrespected!  Guess the GOOD GUYS do finish last.”  There’s no denying the accuracy of Forte’s comments.  He truly has done everything asked of him.  Despite a failure to extend him last year, Forte still showed up to camp on time and in the best shape of his career.  Remember, he played last season for $600,000 while Marion Barber came in and signed a 2 year, $4.6 million deal.  By comparison, Forte was playing under the last year of his rookie deal; a 4 year contract worth a total of $3.8 million.  So it’s understandable that Forte is frustrated.  Without knowing the intent of GM Phil Emery, though, we can’t know if Forte is justified in being frustrated with this signing itself.

Let’s go over the possible motivations for making this deal.  As I said at the top, this signing is a good value for the Bears.  Bush is a productive running back who is good both out of the backfield and as a physical runner between the tackles.  If this signing was made simply as a business decision, a good price for a quality backup with full intention on signing Forte long-term, then Forte should welcome the move.  Having a teammate like Bush will allow Forte to get off the field a little more often, keeping him fresher for the duration of the season.  It is entirely possible, though, that this signing was inspired by a need to protect the Bears from a possible Forte holdout.  If that’s the case, that would mean that the Bears don’t plan on coming to an agreement with Forte and every bit of Matt’s anger over this signing would be justified.

It’s hard to know what the holdup is over an agreement between the Bears and Forte on a long-term deal.  After all, the Arian Foster deal should’ve set the market for this deal.  Forte should sign a very comparable deal to that 5 year, $43.5 million deal with $21 million guaranteed.  If either side is proposing a number that is significantly off of that amount, then this standoff could last for quite a while and it may get very ugly.  It is entirely possible, though, that new GM Phil Emery (who appears to be very structured in his approach) believes that now is the time to sign free agents and hammering out an extension for Forte will be done in its proper time.  The optimist in me is hoping that this is the case.  Thus far, in his short time as GM, Emery has done an excellent job in doing what’s best for the Chicago Bears.  Paying Matt forte is definitely in Chicago’s best interest and I have faith that a deal will get done and we can all (Forte included) continue to be thankful that Phil Emery is our new GM.

Bears re-sign 4 free agents

The Bears have re-signed DE Israel Idonije, S Craig Steltz, TE Kellen Davis and QB Josh McCown.

Idonije was signed to a one-year deal.  The 31 year-old defensive end had only five sacks in 2011 after having 8 in 2010.  While not a high-sack total kind of guy, Idonije plays with a high motor and has been called the most underrated Bears defensive lineman by multiple head coaches who have played against the Bears.  This move gives the Bears some flexibility with the 19^th pick in the upcoming draft.  While we could certainly use some youth at the position, having him here again gives us the flexibility to go elsewhere in the draft (maybe OT?) if a talented prospect falls to us there.

Craig Steltz signed a two-year deal to stay with the Bears.  The key special teams contributor was also called upon to play quite a bit of safety late in the year due to injuries.  According to Pro Football Focus, he was one of only nine safeties to play 25% of their team’s snaps and not miss a tackle on passing plays.  His re-signing gives us some depth at safety, which has seen almost constant turnover under Lovie Smith, and lets Dave Toub keep one of his key special teamers.

The Bears also re-signed Kellen Davis, a 6’7” 260lb tight end to a two year contract.  Under-utilized in Mike Martz’ offense, Davis has the athleticism to potentially be a potent threat for the Bears offense.  Drafted four years ago, Davis has always intrigued the Bears due to his size and speed but he was buried on the depth chart during his first two seasons in Chicago.  During the last two, under Mike Martz as offensive coordinator, the tight end position was rarely utilized in the passing game and Lovie Smith and Phil Emery were apparently not ready to let him go without seeing if he can be as productive as they think he can in an offense that’s much better suited to take advantage of his skills.

The Bears also re-signed QB Josh McCown who should compete with Nathan Enderle for the third QB job.  McCown fared pretty well in his two starts at the end of last year and he is the favorite to hold onto that third-string QB position.  With newly signed Jason Campbell and McCown now behind Cutler, the Bears depth at QB, the debilitating weakness which brought disaster to a promising 2011, is now a position of strength.  Just knowing that these guys are in position in case disaster strikes again should lead to significantly fewer sleepless nights for Bears fans everywhere.

Brandon Marshall Accused of Punching Woman

In our last post, we wrote about what to expect now that Brandon Marshall is a Chicago Bear.  That post focused on the football side of things.  What it omitted, were the maturity issues and off-the-field question marks about Marshall's character.  Less than a full day after the Bears announced they had acquired the talented receiver, these issues have come to the forefront.

A woman has accused Marshall of punching her in the face outside a New York City nightclub around 4am on Sunday.  Marshall has not been charged and his attorney paints a different picture of the scene.  While more details will surely come out in the coming weeks, it's the simple fact that Marshall has once again found himself in this type of situation that should concern Bears fans.

Instead of talking about his legal history, we'd rather focus on the football aspect of it all.  So let's break these issues down into two categories:  issues that could keep Marshall off the field and issues that occur on the field.  These current allegations would fall under the first category.  As many coaches have said, "Nothing good happens after midnight."  Whether guilty or not, the fact that Marshall has again put himself in a situation that could end badly is a concern.  We can hope that the strong Bears locker room will help keep Marshall in line.  It's also very likely that being reunited with Cutler will help Marshall in this area.  Cutler will surely let him know that he can't be of any help to the QB if he's not on the field.  To the on-field issues, I noticed something in the clip that was posted yesterday.  After Marshall scores the go-ahead TD, he takes something out from behind his belt that he plans on celebrating with.  This would result in a penalty on the kickoff, setting up the Browns with excellent field position late in the game.  This was only prevented by Broncos WR Brandon Stokley who sprinted up to Marshall and grabbed his hands stopping him from using whatever prop he was holding (click here for video).  These types of things are always a risk with Marshall.  He is certainly worth that risk, however, given that he is allowed on the field in the first place.

Brandon Marshall to Bears: What to Expect

Just before the start of free agency on Tuesday, the Bears agreed to trade two 3^rd round draft picks for Dolphins wide receiver Brandon Marshall.  Marshall, who played with current Bears quarterback Jay Cutler for three years in Denver, will be the big receiver for which many Bears fans have been clamoring for years.  So now, let’s go in-depth as to what we can expect from Marshall in Chicago.

At 6’4” and 230 pounds, Marshall does an excellent job of using his body to get separation.  He is also a fantastic run blocker.  Not only will he directly help Matt Forte and the Bears’ running game in that manner but he will also help by guaranteeing that Forte won’t be facing 8-man defensive fronts as frequently as he has in the past.  As good as he is in run-blocking or at getting separation, Marshall does his best work with the ball in his hands.  He is one of the best WRs in the NFL after the catch. 

The biggest reason he landed in Chicago, though, is his relationship with Jay Cutler.  Regarding his chemistry with Cutler, Marshall said “It's hard to find that and sometimes it's once in a lifetime” during an interview on ESPN in January.  He went on to say, “We'll line up there and we'll get a coverage and he will just look at me and I'll know exactly where he wants to adjust my route. You don't find that. It got to a point where coaches, they didn't know what we were doing so we'll install a whole play and they'll give us a play on the front side and put me on the back side and they'll tell us just do what you all do and just make it work. We had a lot of freedom in our offense, and we made it work and chemistry was great. It was something special."  Click here for video example.  In the video, Cutler and Marshall both know what they're going to do once the safety drops into the box.  Notice that Marshall breaks straight off the line of scrimmage, leaving room toward the sideline for a break at the end of the route.  Lastly, notice the throw.  Does that back shoulder throw remind anyone of a certain green and yellow QB in our division?  The play in this video is the same play that Aaron Rodgers has used to torch opposing defenses for the last two years.  At long last, the Bears are in a position to fight fire with fire.

Bears Franchise Forte

The Chicago Bears today placed the franchise tag on RB Matt Forte.  For those unaware, let’s review exactly what that means.  It means that the Bears have until July 16^th to continue to try to work out a contract extension if they so desire.  If no deal has been struck by that date, then Forte will be paid the average of the top 5 salaries at his position.  For running backs in 2012, the price of the franchise tag is $7.7 Million. 

While it is a significant salary for one season, players generally have a very negative view of the franchise tag.  Most would prefer the security of a multi-year deal.  However, as Forte himself noted earlier this year, “A lot of teams franchise guys so that they can get a deal done or negotiate a deal.”  He has said that he’d be open to the tag if that were the motive for it.  If the Bears don’t plan on pursuing a multi-year deal and instead expect Matt to play out this season under the tag, however, there may be repercussions.  “I wouldn’t say holdout, but people probably wouldn’t know where I was,” Forte said.  “It just depends on what the motive of that is.”

In terms of a long-term deal, there are some stumbling blocks to getting a deal done.  First is the issue of durability.  Teams just don’t want to guarantee a lot of money to a player who plays a position that has such a penchant for injuries.  Secondly, the contract that the Carolina Panthers gave to DeAngelo Williams last year (5 years, $43 million, $21M guaranteed) was way above market value.  Forte and his agent will try to base their contract off of that one claiming that Forte is a better player and should be higher paid than Williams.  The Bears will say that they shouldn’t be obligated to overpay just because some other team did.  This is the same situation that the Ravens find themselves in with their running back, Ray Rice (who was also franchised on Friday). 

The optimists among us have some signs that they can point to as potential positives too.  The first is the Bears salary cap situation.  As they now stand, the Bears are about $28 million under the salary cap.  So they have no financial restraints to getting a deal done.  Also, if the franchise tag holds the full $7.7M would count against the cap.  If they were to get a deal done instead, they could spread the signing bonus over the length of the contract for cap purposes.  This would reduce the amount that Forte would count against the salary cap.  You would also think that the Bears would like to get this settled before free agency starts so they’d have a more exact idea of who they can afford to explore (at the WR position, maybe??).  Also, it might be a stretch but it could be a good sign that Matt wasn’t franchised until late in the day Friday.  New GM Phil Emery was said to re-open negotiations with Forte’s agent during the NFL Combine last weekend and it’s possible that they could be close to a deal.  We also can’t help but think that Emery would like to make a positive impact in his first big move in his new position.  What better way to do that than to lock up one of the Bears’ most important and most popular players?